By Irina Severin | UAObserver
Admitting reality as precondition for right solution
Ukraine and the world face an extraordinary challenge that Russian aggression against Ukraine presents. The West is the only player who can stop Russian bloodshed in Ukraine, preserve its independence, and re-establish territorial integrity. The crucial is a sober and precise assessment of the situation, clearing it from the myths imposed by Russian propaganda. Otherwise, the West will involuntarily play along with the scenario set by Russia.
First, Ukraine should admit it is at war with Russia's regular armed forces for control over the Ukrainian territory in the east of Ukraine. It is necessary to recognize that Russia attacked Ukraine and to acknowledge the territory controlled by Russia as a territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation.
Kremlin military "Humanitarian" Trojan horse" operation as a breaking point
Under the guise of a "humanitarian convoy," Russia managed to carry out massive supplies of arms and the units of the Russian regular army to the eastern regions of Ukraine.
From this point, Ukraine fought not against Russia's mercenaries and "the Russian soldiers on vacation" but against the regular Russian troops. "Humanitarian special operation" has fundamentally changed the balance of power in favor of Russia and Russia's forces in the Donbas.
Russia continues to deny its presence there as it did first about Crimea. At the same time, the advancement of the Russian troops in Ukraine during the last few days is nobody's secret.
For the effectiveness of the Peace plan, Ukraine and the entire international community should recognize Russia's temporary occupation of part of Ukraine. The West should continue increasing pressure on the Russian Federation by tightening sanctions to increase the price of Russian military actions in Ukraine.
Fortified shield for arresting Russian aggression in Ukraine
Recognizing the part of the country as a territory temporarily occupied by Russia and stopping the Anti-terrorist operation in the Donbas region, Ukraine will provide the West with the possibility to supply Ukraine with defensive weapons. In such a case, the supply of arms to Ukraine will deter bloodshed, not leading to its escalation, as the West fears. Ukraine will not use the weapons to regain control over already occupied territory as the West is afraid but to prevent Russia's advance into new territory.
The key role in the Peace plan belongs to the West, which should provide weapons, enough to deter aggression. Combined with the sanctions raising the price of occupation, this will allow isolating and stopping Russian aggression in Ukraine.
However, this plan will be effective only in the case of the well-coordinated efforts of the entire international community. In such a case, over time, international pressure will make Russia abandon the occupied territories and start looking inward to resolve its internal problems, not continue the occupation of new parts – the trend we observe today.
Moreover, in such a case, Moscow would have to ensure the viability of the occupied territories, consistently and deliberately destroyed by Russian paramilitary and regular troops, which will become an unsupportable burden for the struggling with its own economic problems country.
Isolation would lead to Russia's peaceful surrender and reverse the pre-Crimean status quo. History shows that Russia sometimes wins wars but loses the peace.
Role of International Organisations
The residents of the temporarily occupied territories should get the opportunity to move to the territory controlled by Ukraine to prevent the repressions against the local population by the Russian invaders that take place in the region now.
This Peace Plan will save the lives both of the Ukrainians, defending their country and people, and the Russians, either forced to perform the criminal orders of their higher-ups or falling under the spell of the Kremlin's illegal propaganda, intentionally inciting hatred of the Russians toward the Ukrainians.
The international community should also recognize the criminal character of Russian propaganda and its central role in the Russian war against Ukraine.
The international organizations should continue monitoring the situation in the region. There needs to be more than OSCE's efforts, as the organization is experiencing a strong influence on the activities of the country-aggressor. Russia could easily affect the organization's decision-making process via its funding.
Correcting psychological deviations
When the economic pressure will give results, Russia will be more prone to look for a diplomatic solution. Russia's apparent, peaceful defeat is the only thing that can stop Putin's further aggression against Ukraine and other states.
The reason for spreading Russian aggression is primarily psychological: Putin's confidence in his invincibility. His "winner syndrome" pushes him and the nation to new territorial conquests. Russia needs an apparent defeat to overcome this syndrome.
Such an approach would let Russia become a normal country that respects international laws and engages in its development rather than entertaining its imperial drive by occupying new territories.
Containing Russian corruption
Released from a war of attrition led by Russia against Ukraine (and by default against the EU), Kyiv will get an opportunity to undertake the necessary reforms and boost its economy.
This approach would protect Ukraine from Russia's corrupting influence. The schemes, corrupting Ukrainian politicians, were Moscow's primary weapon, keeping Ukraine in Russia's sphere of influence during all years of Ukraine's independence.
Economic recovery and integration with the West will make Ukraine a natural magnet for the territories temporarily occupied by Russia. At the same time, Russia will be unable to offer them anything. The example of Crimea only proves this.
Russia's "take over" technology.
It is essential to understand that the so-called self-proclaimed republics "Lugansk Popular Republic" and "Donetsk Popular Republic" - are anything but Russia's false flag special operations designed to occupy Ukrainian territory. If these projects are successful, Russia will continue to use them worldwide - be this Spanish Catalonia or the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China.
Understanding the mechanism of the Russian territorial conquests must unite all countries for coordinated action to stop Russian military aggression in its present borders and gradually start returning the situation to its original settings and reestablishment of International law.
Federalization as shared sovereignty over Ukraine
Russia-imposed federalization of Ukraine, envisaging the incorporation of Russia-controlled, temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory, is not the solution but a trap. The arrangement would mean a "shared sovereignty" with Russia over Ukraine, gradual isolation from the West, and drawing it into Russia's sphere of influence by involving Ukrainian elites in joint corrupt projects.
The most negative for Ukraine Russian scenario envisages the transformation of Ukraine from a potentially strong ally of the West into its fervent opponent. There are no halftones in Russian foreign policy. Russia has potent brainwashing and social engineering technologies able to transform a naturally pro-Western nation into a hostile one.
This scenario is inevitable in the case of the policy of appeasement of Russia and acceptance that there is no Russian war against Ukraine, just an "internal Ukrainian conflict."
Imposing this artificially created scheme on the international community using propaganda and diplomatic tools is Russia's main battleground these days.
In such a way, Russia wants to maintain its total control over the part of Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Ukraine and its donors should pay for the reconstruction of the region intentionally ruined by the Russian troops. Claiming the role of a "peacemaker" in settling the "internal Ukrainian conflict," Russia will demand the West lifting sanctions and reintegration into the world on its conditions.
Russia's "Ukrainian Conflict" strategy
Simultaneously Russia will continue its war of attrition against Ukraine, pretending it does not control the terrorist actions of alleged "separatists" (in reality, Russia's mercenaries and Russian troops). In such a way, Russia will continue spreading its terror not only in Donbas; but also over the rest of Ukraine and preparing for new military actions by sending "humanitarian convoys" with armament and troops to occupied Donbas.
Russia tries to impose a kind of shared sovereignty with Ukraine over the occupied territory, which Moscow will gradually expand over the rest of Ukraine by spreading terror and corrupting national and local authorities until converting Ukraine into a failed state, unable to exist without reunification with Russia.
Strengthened by Ukraine and encouraged by a successful takeover operation, Russia would become an insurmountable threat to Europe and the world. For now, the world has a choice.
Predetermined consequences of this scenario, designed in Russia's "asymmetric war" laboratories, explain why the clean break and isolation of Russian aggression is the only way to preserve Ukrainian independence and gradually reverse the situation back to normal.
Isolation combined with tough sanctions will be a well-deserved lesson for Russia: Russia's methodically induced misery and terror, meant to destroy Ukraine, will start to work against Russia. Moscow should pay this price, not Ukraine or the West.
Russia's defeat as longer-term gain
If Ukraine maintains its independence and builds an attractive state model for its citizens, it will become a positive example for Russia. Following it, Russia eventually gets integrated into the international community based on modern principles and values, not continue imposing its medieval feudal model on the world operating in Russia today. Moscow actively tries to set its model on Europe via its ultra-right and ultra-left allies in the European Union.
The Peace plan on arresting and reversing Russian aggression, based on the real vision of the situation, not a fantasy spread by Russian propaganda around the world, will preserve the fundamental international rules instead of adopting the aggressor's actions that put the world on the brink of disaster.
The Peace plan also requires a review of the role of Russia as a country-aggressor in international organizations, especially in the UN Security Council.
The Peace plan requires a deep understanding and coordinated actions by all members of the international community in favor of peace and prosperity. An alternative to this plan is a permanent chaos controlled by Moscow, the signs we observe today.