Putin's "Food OPEC," Shoigu's Reflexive Control Ops, and Ukraine's Lonely Stand Against Russian Horde

By Irina Severin |  UAObserver

It appears that the US (and, even more so, European countries) still don't fully understand the implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's endgame. In addition to the increase in oil and gas prices, food prices have lately risen by 50% after Russia launched the war against Ukraine.

Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin

But if the US allows Russia to occupy Ukraine, even partly, as some Russia-paid experts suggest to the Biden Administration to save Putin's face, world food prices will double. Putin plans to dramatically increase its share of the global food market by capturing Ukraine's fertile black soils, thereby enabling it to dictate global prices. Russia is obsessed with maximizing its clout in the world's food markets, especially after losing its gas leverage over Europe and the rest of the world. Controlling the world's food market would significantly improve Russia’s geopolitical standing.

Russia can't obtain this goal without Ukraine’s lands. Russia needs Ukraine's black soil to dominate the world food market. Fertile land makes up only 9% of Russia’s territory and up to 67% of Ukraine’s. Russia's influence over world food prices is not a temporary fallout of war as the West thinks, but the primary strategic goal of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Russia not only destroys everything in Ukraine to free the space for the industrial production of grain and other food products on Ukrainian chernozems. Putin is so obsessed with the idea of world food market domination that it wipes out everything from the territory of Russia's chernozem for the same purpose. Early and out-of-season massive fires in Russia's South Siberia coincide with Russia's 9% of fertile soils.

Moscow's desperate actions show Russia's fixation on dominating the world food market as soon as possible. Only by blocking Ukraine's seaports has Russia increased control over the world's food prices. Add to Russia's increased share of the world market and de facto "Grain OPEC" with India, and you will get a preview of the future. Putin intends to dominate the world by starving and eliminating enemies while feeding up submissive regimes.

Just as Russia managed to secure energy dominance over Europe and control over oil and gas prices, Moscow now prepares to do the same with food on an even larger scale. If previously Russia intended to freeze dissent against its world domination, now it wants to starve it.

Food prices are even more effective leverage than fuel in potential regime changes around the globe. Most revolutions in the world have started with food price rises and shortages, as these affect people’s basic needs. At the same time, the increase in food production is Putin’s guarantee that the Russians will play along with his politics, whatever insane it is, as their primary needs are satisfied.

The chief goal of Putin’s attacks will be on democracies. The Biden administration's approval rating already suffers from rising gas prices in the US. If Russia captures Ukraine's chernozem, the food prices will increase exponentially, and the Biden Administration will be the first victim. The same challenges would be faced by other Western governments unwilling to obey Russia’s rule.

However, we see tacit sabotage of Ukraine by the US and, even more so, by Germany, France, and Italy. All of them promised some "weapons," but later, sometime in July, when Russia would occupy and eradicate Ukraine by massively overwhelming it with its military force.

All this could happen despite major promises from the West, including the Lend-Lease agreement and the allocation of $40 billion in aid to Ukraine. Timing is everything in this war. Nobody will be able to resurrect dead Ukrainian soldiers who are massively dying these days, attempting to stop Russia's overwhelming horde.

I won't be amazed if Germany, promising some military help to Ukraine, secretly helps Russia. Such things happened after the Russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2014, when Germany, despite the sanctions, secretly continued to supply Russia with military equipment. Why not now?

Promoting Russia's "peace plan," implying depriving Ukraine of sovereignty and territorial integrity, is a massive help to Russia and explicit encouragement to further Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

It is understandable why Germany, France, and Italy are sabotaging military help to Ukraine. This results from Russian propaganda imposed on their public and decision-makers, suggesting that America would increase its influence over Europe if Ukraine won. Russia plays this card masterfully to weaponize old Europe against Ukraine, exploiting their artificially created vulnerabilities. Do those countries really want to remain one-on-one with Russia without the US security umbrella?

But why is the US sabotaging Ukraine by delaying the supply of hard weapons, especially the MLRS, and letting Russia occupy and destroy Ukraine and kill Ukrainians?

Did Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu make Lloyd Austin promise not to supply Ukraine with hard weapons during their conversation on the 13th of May? Shoigu is a poor military commander but a master manipulator, using his dark skills to handle both Putin and the Biden administration.

In such a case, by keeping the promise to Shoigu - the main driver behind Putin's genocidal war – the US betrays Ukraine – America's most devoted and potent ally in the region. Does it make any sense?

A similar conversation between Shoigu and Lloyd Austin preceded the dire American withdrawal from Afghanistan, staged in advance by Shoigu. Why repeat the same blunder of letting Russia destroy Ukraine by relying on a deceptive deal with Shoigu again?

Ukraine could become the Biden Administration's most significant victory or the biggest failure. Russia's plan to create a food cartel against the West is so critical for the US that Biden should send American troops to Ukraine and fight tooth and nail for Ukraine's sovereignty.

The stakes are high. To protect the world from starving and growing Russia's evil clout, the West should act immediately, not appease and encourage Moscow's aggression against Ukraine, as this happens now by withdrawing military support to Ukraine.

If the West thinks it acts smart by postponing aid to Ukraine, it is wrong. The West just demonstrates suicidal behavior resulting from Russian propaganda and Reflexive control ops.