May 6, 2023

Drone attack: Shoigu's attempt to force Putin to introduce martial law

Even if Putin tries to capitalize on the attack of drones on the Kremlin, the larger context shows it was Shoigu's way of forcing Putin to introduce martial law.

Martial law would mean a de facto military coup, as levers of power would pass from Putin and FSB to Shoigu and the military.
Despite Putin's attempts to increase his influence in the army by 'rotating" generals, it is still loyal to Shoigu. Moreover, Shoigu has created his own PMC, which could overcome the army's combat capabilities.
One thing is required of Putin - to sign the introduction of martial law, after which he and his clan will lose influence on the situation.
The situation is similar to the start of the war. After Putin agreed to the special military operation, he lost control over the army. Even if he desperately tried to preserve the image of Russia's only and all-powerful ruler.
Shoigu had been preparing for this moment for years. He has built his parallel state within a state and can now easily take over the levers of power.
But he can't afford an open revolt against the leader, which would contradict his ideological creed that the leader is God on Earth and everyone and everything should subordinate to him.
This ideologeme is the cornerstone of the regime, Shoigu intends to build, and martial law is helpful. Also, martial law allows catching power without an open rebellion. Putin and his entourage, including FSB, will just become irrelevant and gradually lose their remains of control.
Shoigu's powers, on the contrary, will increase significantly. He would get control of the country (Moscow?) as he could confiscate any property, disarm any units, dictate media what to broadcast, etc.
Even if martial law doesn't provide for a total transfer of power to the military, the bureaucracy and the population will see this as legitimate.
If Shoigu manages to replace Putin, martial law will become permanent. The army-state, conquering the world, is another cornerstone of Shoigu's ideology and master plan.
If Putin's clan, including FSB, Rosgvardia, Prigozhin, Kadyrov(?), and multiple regional and oligarchic PMCs created lately, finally decide to neutralize Shoigu, this would lead to a civil war in Russia. A covert hybrid civil war or creeping military coup in Russia has been ongoing for years.
All this makes the war in Ukraine irrelevant.
Prigozhin does realize this and has already declared that Wagner is withdrawing from Ukraine. If Putin's clan finally neutralizes Shoigu, the war should stop.
Russia should withdraw its military forces from Ukraine. Putin gets the chance to shift the responsibility for military crimes to Shoigu. And start negotiations about capitulation.
Shoigu is the ideologist of war in Ukraine and its primary executor. Russians will accept everything as the ultimate truth because Shoigu propagated frenzied militarization.
Russian propaganda will position capitulation as a victory against "dark forces." Prigozhin has already started a campaign against Shoigu.
Putin's attempts to neutralize Shoigu could finally succeed. But Shoigu could do the same if Putin fails. He will position Putin as evil and himself as a hero who neutralized him.
Whatever, the fight on who will hand over whom to the Hague court has started. The one who first withdraws troops from Ukraine will win.

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