November 13, 2016

Russia intends to impose Transnistrization scheme on Ukraine

By Irina Severin | UAObserver 

The victory of the pro-Moscow candidate Igor Dodon in the Presidential election in Moldova is not only the EU's loss of the popularity contest to Russia but a sign of a complete failure of the EU policy in the region.

The EU loses its position even though it offers a massive amount of aid to the country and pays a significant part of its budget. However, the public either does not know about this or sees this as a bribing of Moldovan authorities by the EU bureaucrats as Russian propaganda touts this.
During the last decade, Moscow has run a relentless disinformation campaign in Moldova. Still, there are no signs of informing the public about the EU assistance, neither the EU nor the Moldovan authorities.

Moreover, the money paid by the EU for years for the construction and renovation of kindergartens, hospitals, and schools in Transnistria (not in Moldova!) is attributed by the locals to Moscow and seen as Russian investment in the region's development.  
Both the population in Transnistria and in Moldova are sure that this is Moscow's support for Transnistria as the region is the territory occupied by Russia, which was recognized by the ECHR. The presence of the 14th Russian Army makes Transnistria Russia's military outpost in Europe. 

EU's financial assistance to the breakaway region paradoxically is one of the reasons why Moldovans want "more Russia" in Moldova and vote for Dodon, who promised to bring more Russian help. On the opposite side, the EU got an image of the force corrupting authorities but don't help the population in Moldova. Strangely, the EU's contribution to Transnistria's development instead of making Moldova more attractive for the Moldovans from Transnistria played exactly into Russian hands.

If a couple of years ago, most Moldovans favored European integration. Lately, getting closer to Russia is about 50 percent of Moldova.

Furthermore, after obtaining such success in Moldova and Transnistria, Moscow is trying to impose the same model on the occupied territories in Ukraine. Russia would like to preserve its military and administrative power In Donbas but make Europeans pay for the reconstruction of the Donbas region, which was occupied by the Russian military.

The logic is simple - if this scheme works for Russia in Transnistria and Moldova, why not impose the same scheme on Ukraine?

Transnistization scheme as inspiration for Russia to occupy Donbas

From the start, the corrupt "Transnistrian scheme" was a model that Moscow conceived as the basis for Moscow's plan for Donbas. In fact, the Donbas military campaign was initiated to impose the Transnistrization model on Ukraine. Without such a model in Moldova, Moscow would never occupy Donbas.

The Transnistrian model provides the Minsk agreement - legalization of the Russian military base in Ukraine, assuring its funding by Western donors with gradual "Transnistrisation" of Ukraine as this happened in Moldova.

Another Moldovan scheme that Moscow failed to impose on Moldova but still intends to implement in Ukraine is the Memorandum Kozak scheme. Russia created two would-be republics in the East of Ukraine to federalize Ukraine and impose equal rights on all three entities, making the rest of Ukraine lose in score 1: 2 to two artificially created by Moscow republics. 

The same scheme was achieved in Moldova by creating three federation subjects, including two pro-Russian entities Transnistria and Gagauzia, against one Moldova. In Moldova, the deal failed at the last moment, but why not try the same trick in Ukraine?

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