Why won't Biden supply Ukraine with ATACAMS despite Congress's bipartisan support, except for Putin's faction inside the GOP, which understandably desperately opposes any aid to Ukraine?
Biden's reelection directly depends on Putin. Putin's Golden share in the American presidential election is the Russia-sponsored third-party candidates, which ultimately decide the destiny of the American elections, shifting the balance in favor of one or another candidate.
This was the case in 2016 when the Green Party candidate shifted the balance in Trump's favor. The same happened in 2020 when the Libertarian candidate decided the result of the election, favoring Biden's win.
Why Biden? Putin was more content with the Biden-Obama tandem's reaction to Russia's occupation of Ukraine in 2014 than Trump's business acumen, expressed in soft talk and hard actions.
In 2012, American military aid to Ukraine under Russian aggression was limited to blankets.
Trump didn't live up to Putin's expectations, introducing sanctions against Russia and finally supplying Ukraine with weapons.
And most important, despite Trump's vague statements, it was his administration the first to clearly voice that "Crimea is Ukraine," and this was seen by Putin as a betrayal that he doesn't forgive.
Therefore, as Putin planned further invasion of Ukraine, obviously old and tried Biden - with hard talk and soft actions - was a preferable choice. And still is.
Therefore, Biden's main goal now is to pay the leap service to the cause of supporting Ukraine but secretly sabotage it to win the competition with Trump for Putin's favor by who better to prove to Putin their allegiance.
Another goal is to shift responsibility for diminishing support to Ukraine to Republicans. In fact, the Biden administration plays in unison with Putin's faction - the so-called "Freedom Caucus." And blame Ukraine for a slow counteroffensive and, thus, weakening public support for Ukraine.
The destiny of Biden's impeachment is also in Putin's hands.
Burisma is not a Ukrainian company. It is a company based in Ukraine but owned by Russians. Exactly after Russia occupied Crimea and when Russia was invading Donbas, Biden's son negotiated his payment with Russian Burisma owners in London.
The goal was not only to protect their property in Ukraine but to ensure support for Russian interests in Ukraine and obtain incriminating evidence against Biden, who was responsible for Ukraine in the Obama administration.
Despite clear information about the Russian invasion, neither Biden nor Obama ever opposed it, preferring to embrace the Russian version of the pretended rebellion of inexistent "separatists" - the reflection control notion made up by Moscow to cover up the Russian invasion.
Thus, as Putin has recordings of secret negotiations in London, he can make them public at any moment. However, he is not interested in publishing them as it could be done only once. He prefers to keep Biden on the hook, manipulating him as he wishes.
This explains the flip-flops with the impeachment of Biden, meant to blackmail Biden and is halted after the backstage negotiations and Biden's promise to withhold critical necessary for Ukraine's survival F-16 and ATACAMS.
As a result of Biden's efforts to please Putin to avoid impeachment, thousands of Ukrainians are losing their lives. Also, by his actions, Biden encouraged Putin to escalate the war against Ukraine and other East-European countries. Putin knows that Biden is helplessly hanging on his hook and won't act to stop him.
As Biden's political survival, not only reelection, depends on Putin, it would be naive to expect Biden to finally agree to supply Ukraine with ATACMS. But Ukraine still can expect Biden's fervent support in words to appease those who support Ukraine.