Prigozhin's short-lived triumph and Putin's next failure to replace Shoigu

The videos of Prigozhin and Wagner leaving Rostov looks like Prigozhin's triumph Putin only can dream about.  For jealous Putin, this is what a nightmare looks like.

As for the continuation of the story, Putin and Prigozhin understood differently the deal they made via Lukashenko. Putin won't fire Shoigu, which was the main condition of Prigozhin. Not because Putin doesn't want to, he can't. 

The fact that yesterday, Alexei Diumin was called to the Kremlin means that Putin counted on Prigozhin to eliminate Shoigu to replace him with his long-time bodyguard and loyalist Diumin finally. 

In 2021 after the Duma elections, Putin already tried to replace Shoigu with his other former bodyguard Yevgeny Zinichev, who then occupied the same position as earlier Shoigu - the head of the Emergency Ministry. 

Did Shoigu overplay Prigozhin and who framed whom?

 UAObserver 

By swearing allegiance to Shoigu, "Akhmat" and Kadyrov crossed the line, which is punishable 

The scandal between Prigozhin and Shoigu involving Kadyrov, Delimkhanov, and Putin has changed the Russian political landscape a bit. However,  it was not Prigozhin who framed Putin by refusing to sign an agreement with Shoigu, as it looks like, but Kadyrov, who signed it. Especially so as Shoigu issued his order without Putin's approval, challenging him. 

The "Akhmat" Special Rapid Response Unit is a subdivision of the Russian Guard, personally subordinate to Putin and headed by his former bodyguard Zolotov.  "Akhmat" in no way is not "a volunteer unit" mentioned in Shoigu's order. 

Putin created the Russian Guard as a counterbalance to Shoigu's army for Putin's protection after one of the attempts on his life. Putin let Kadyrov create a de facto private army located in Chechnya which was formally subordinated to the Russian Guard in exchange for Kadyrov's promise to be "Putin's infantry" protecting him and his clan. But the sudden public Akhmat signing of an agreement with Shoigu meant an over to the side of the rival clan.

Shoigu targets Prigozhin, hits Putin clan

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Defense minister Sergei Shoigu's directive demanding that all ‘volunteer detachments’ must sign military contracts by the end of the month aimed at taking under control Wagner and other paramilitary formations, not subordinates to him. 

The directive was not agreed with Putin. Which especially important that these paramilitary formations belong to the competing Putin clan and initially were meant to balance Shoigu's extensive military force, directly subordinated and loyal to him. By such a move made under the pretext of aligning all military formations, Shoigu substantially weakened Putin's clan.  

The main target of the Shoigu directive is Wagner, whose owner Prigozhin lately openly criticized Shoigu for ineffectiveness. Lately, there were more so-called private armies created to protect the Putin clan or, de facto, to protect the owners of companies and heads of the regions, as lately, weakened by sanctions and isolation Putin started to cease being a guarantor for their positions, or property rights.

Drone attack: Shoigu's attempt to force Putin to introduce martial law

Even if Putin tries to capitalize on the attack of drones on the Kremlin, the larger context shows it was Shoigu's way of forcing Putin to introduce martial law.

Martial law would mean a de facto military coup, as levers of power would pass from Putin and FSB to Shoigu and the military.

Despite Putin's attempts to increase his influence in the army by 'rotating" generals, it is still loyal to Shoigu. Moreover, Shoigu has created his own PMC, which could overcome the army's combat capabilities.

One thing is required of Putin - to sign the introduction of martial law, after which he and his clan will lose influence on the situation.

The situation is similar to the start of the war. After Putin agreed to the special military operation, he lost control over the army. Even if he desperately tried to preserve the image of Russia's only and all-powerful ruler.

Kremlin drone strike, Russia's reflexive control, nukes and fake deals

 UAObserver 

Who is behind the drone attack? Russia routinely blames US 

The incident looks like a typical Russian false flag operation. The reason for this carefully staged performance could be Russia's attempt to turn the West against Ukraine.

Apparently, there is an agreement between Russia and the US at the level of security officials that Ukraine doesn't strike the Red Square in exchange for Russia doesn't use nuclear weapons.

However, the Kremlin is a legitimate target for the Ukrainian army, as Russia attacked Ukraine. "We don't attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities," Zelensky said, speaking on a visit to Finland.”

Ukraine's lack of necessary weapons dooms Kyiv and Washington to defeat

 UAObserver 

The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, is convinced that Ukraine doesn't need F-16 and long-range weapons in the counter-offensive against Russian invaders

Russian military trap in making

There is a really bizarre situation. The Russian propagandists, setting the main noise background of the war, talk about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but completely forget about the Russian offensive, which, apparently, is curtailed. Wagner's Prigozhin declares the need to stop where Russian forces are and begin to defend already occupied positions.

Russian propagandists actively praise the Ukrainian army and depict Russia's future defeat in the decisive battle, thus encouraging Ukraine's counter-offensive. Why stop the Russian offensive and spread the defeatist scenarios? And is Moscow really scared by the Ukrainian army?

Not that simple. The Russian side relies on the Ukrainian counter-offensive to win as Moscow is convinced that Ukraine's army will lose without airplanes and long-range weapons. 

Russia's calculation is that with predominance in the air Russian army will be able to stop Ukraine's counter-offensive, encircle unprotected Ukrainian troops and destroy them, and after that, launch a full-scale offensive against Ukraine. 

Political decision-making vs. military 

Despite massive Western military aid to Ukraine, Russia still has the advantage in airplanes and long-range weapons. Therefore, Ukraine's offensive on the ground without protection from the air benefits Russia's military enormously. 

Putin's "Food OPEC," Shoigu's reflexive control ops, and Ukraine's lonely "final stand" against Russia's horde

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It appears that the US (and, even more so, European countries) still don't fully understand the implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's end game. Additionally, to oil and gas prices increase, food prices lately had risen by 50% after Russia launched the war against Ukraine.

But if the US allows Russia to occupy Ukraine, even partly, as some Russia-paid experts suggest to the Biden Administration to save Putin's face, world food prices will double.

Russia plans to dramatically increase its share of the world food market by capturing Ukraine's fertile black soils to be able to dictate world prices. Russia is obsessed with the idea of maximizing its clout in the world's food markets, especially after losing its gas influence over Europe and the world. Controlling the world's food market would significantly improve Russia’s geopolitical standing.

Steinmeier Formula: from War of Attrition to War of Annihilation

Russia continues its war against Ukraine, concentrates its military forces on the border with Ukraine, massively increases its military presence inside the occupied Donbas, and simultaneously demands Ukrainian military disengagement as a precondition for the Normandy Summit of Four. Such a demand is pure nonsense. 

What does Zelensky expect from the Normandy Summit of Four - signing a capitulation in the presence of Putin, Merkel, and Macron? It would be suicidal not only for Zelensky and Ukraine but also for Europe as this would lead to a large-scale Syria kind of war in Europe, replacing controllable Russian partial occupation of Ukraine. 

Now Russia is leading a war of attrition against Ukraine. The recognition of the Russian military exclave inside Ukraine would provoke Moscow to start a war of annihilation against Ukraine while pretending to be a peace-maker. 

 

Shoigu already promised "to stop Ukrainian extremists" and regretted that "it was not done earlier."

Could be 'Russian trace' behind Ukrainian plane downing?

 UAObserver

The often-asked question lately could be ‘Russian trace’ behind the downing Ukrainian plane? 

While Iranians don't have a reason to hit a Ukrainian plane, Russia does have a clear motive. Therefore. the “Russian trace” should not be discarded. 

Since 2013, Russia has methodically pressured Ukraine into obedience by different military and terrorist means, using a false flag operation approach. The downing of the Ukrainian plane in Baghdad could be another false flag operation meant to increase pressure on Ukraine and personally on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

The owner of the downed aircraft is a Ukrainian oligarch and one of Zelensky's close allies and sponsor of his campaign Kolomoisky. Downing the plane is a kind of threat to both Zelensky and Kolomoisky of what they should expect if they don't obey Russia. 

What's next: To save Putin's face or Ukraine?

By Irina Severin  |  UAObserver 

Frightened Putin after the downing of the Malaysian Boeing

Now that the Minsk agreement has proved incapable of ending Russia's war against Ukraine, it is important to remember the context in which it emerged. Why did negotiations take place in Minsk?

After the downing of Boeing NH17 and the Illovaisk tragedy, when the Russian military massively shot Ukrainian captives, Putin became a war criminal and was afraid that if he went to the West, he would be arrested. That is why it was decided to hold the negotiations in Minsk.

Then, in a strange way, all the efforts of the West were aimed at making Putin save face in exchange for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. Multiple Western articles called "Let Putin save face." The phrase was repeated like a mantra.

For the same reason - saving Putin's face, "Minsk-1" did not blame Russia for military aggression against Ukraine but acknowledged the alleged "internal conflict" in Ukraine. Accordingly, the agreement envisaged mutual withdrawal of troops and offering special status to the Russia-occupied territories - all the measures for resolving internal conflicts which did not exist in Ukraine. The "harmless" lie imposed by Merkel on Ukraine was meant to achieve the main goal of saving Putin's face.