February 16, 2024

Biden chooses Putin over Ukraine and Putin reciprocates


Joe Biden plays exactly into Putin's hands by depriving Ukraine of military aid. Nothing strange that Putin prefers Biden to Trump. Trump talks about appeasing Putin. Biden does appease Putin.

The only preoccupation of Biden is to shift the responsibility for depriving Ukraine of military aid to Republicans to look good inside the country and abroad.
Biden has enough possibilities to supply Ukraine with the necessary arms but prefers appeasing Putin to get Putin's support for reelection.
Both Trump and Biden compete for Putin's favor as Putin possesses the Golden share and, in fact, appoints the next president of the US as he did with two previous presidents.
Trump won the 2016 election and Biden 2020 thanks to Putin's Golden share.
As the balance of votes during the election in the US is very close, the winner depends on the third party's candidates. Third-party candidates in the US depend on Putin - he decides whether they will run or not. And which of them - those who will benefit Biden or Trump.
Putin is the master of the situation.
Neither American legislation nor acting politicians or security institutions are unable (or don’t want - heads of the FBI and CIA are Putin's lobbyists) to deprive Putin of his influence over American politics.
The Kremlin, not the American people, decides who will run the country as the President for the next 4 years.
As the only way to win the 2024 election is to appease Putin, sacrificing American interests and European allies, this is exactly what both Biden and Trump do.

This is the current state of democracy in the US.

January 14, 2024

Iran-backed, Russia-sponsored Houthis Special Military Operation in Red Sea

Irina Severin | UAObserver

The Hindustan Times video shows against whom the international coalition is fighting in the Red Sea. Officially "Iran-backed Houthis" situationally are Russian proxies, while Iran in Russia's false flag operation is a convenient cover-up and scapegoat, blindly used by Putin in Russia's big game for global dominance.

By employing Houthis, Putin achieves two goals. The first goal is destroying the main maritime artery for world trade to tout the Russian Northern Sea Route in the Arctic as a "pirate-free" alternative compared with the troubled Suez Canal.
The second goal is to get Iran under attack by the Western coalition to drag it into a war with the United States and the West, thus completely diverting Western attention and resources from Ukraine.
Raising the world oil prices as the result of Russian-backed Houthis' blockage is rather a bonus compared with global reformatting tasks.

November 4, 2023

Putin's New Reflexive Control Operation or What was the goal of the rumor spread by Russians about Putin's death?

By Irina Severin | UAObserver

Putin's New Reflexive Control Operation or What was the goal of the rumor spread by Russians about Putin's death?

Foremost, the rumor was addressed to the Western leaders, not to the Russian public as some suggest. From the Reflexive Control point of view, the information about Putin's death should provoke shock and fear about chaos in Russia as a country with nuclear weapons in case of Putin's death.
The Western leaders should imagine a nightmare scenario with terrifying pictures of a bloody civil war in Russia with chaos and nuclear weapons without control spread to the Middle East or elsewhere.
They should think: maybe it would be better that he is still alive - despite being predictably unpredictable, he is better than somebody unknown like semi-crazy Patrushev. At least Putin has mild manners, and it is possible to converse with him. And this is exactly what happened.

June 24, 2023

Prigozhin's short-lived triumph and Putin's next failure to replace Shoigu

The videos of Prigozhin and Wagner leaving Rostov looks like Prigozhin's triumph Putin only can dream about.  For jealous Putin, this is what a nightmare looks like.

As for the continuation of the story, Putin and Prigozhin understood differently the deal they made via Lukashenko. Putin won't fire Shoigu, which was the main condition of Prigozhin. Not because Putin doesn't want to, he can't. 

The fact that yesterday, Alexei Diumin was called to the Kremlin means that Putin counted on Prigozhin to eliminate Shoigu to replace him with his long-time bodyguard and loyalist Diumin finally. 

In 2021 after the Duma elections, Putin already tried to replace Shoigu with his other former bodyguard Yevgeny Zinichev, who then occupied the same position as earlier Shoigu - the head of the Emergency Ministry. 

June 17, 2023

Did Shoigu overplay Prigozhin and who framed whom?


By swearing allegiance to Shoigu, "Akhmat" and Kadyrov crossed the line, which is punishable 

The scandal between Prigozhin and Shoigu involving Kadyrov, Delimkhanov, and Putin has changed the Russian political landscape a bit. However,  it was not Prigozhin who framed Putin by refusing to sign an agreement with Shoigu, as it looks like, but Kadyrov, who signed it. Especially so as Shoigu issued his order without Putin's approval, challenging him. 

The "Akhmat" Special Rapid Response Unit is a subdivision of the Russian Guard, personally subordinate to Putin and headed by his former bodyguard Zolotov.  "Akhmat" in no way is not "a volunteer unit" mentioned in Shoigu's order. 

Putin created the Russian Guard as a counterbalance to Shoigu's army for Putin's protection after one of the attempts on his life. Putin let Kadyrov create a de facto private army located in Chechnya which was formally subordinated to the Russian Guard in exchange for Kadyrov's promise to be "Putin's infantry" protecting him and his clan. But the sudden public Akhmat signing of an agreement with Shoigu meant an over to the side of the rival clan.

June 12, 2023

Shoigu targets Prigozhin, hits Putin clan


Defense minister Sergei Shoigu's directive demanding that all ‘volunteer detachments’ must sign military contracts by the end of the month aimed at taking under control Wagner and other paramilitary formations, not subordinates to him. 

The directive was not agreed with Putin. Which especially important that these paramilitary formations belong to the competing Putin clan and initially were meant to balance Shoigu's extensive military force, directly subordinated and loyal to him. By such a move made under the pretext of aligning all military formations, Shoigu substantially weakened Putin's clan.  

The main target of the Shoigu directive is Wagner, whose owner Prigozhin lately openly criticized Shoigu for ineffectiveness. Lately, there were more so-called private armies created to protect the Putin clan or, de facto, to protect the owners of companies and heads of the regions, as lately, weakened by sanctions and isolation Putin started to cease being a guarantor for their positions, or property rights.

May 6, 2023

Drone attack: Shoigu's attempt to force Putin to introduce martial law

Even if Putin tries to capitalize on the attack of drones on the Kremlin, the larger context shows it was Shoigu's way of forcing Putin to introduce martial law.

Martial law would mean a de facto military coup, as levers of power would pass from Putin and FSB to Shoigu and the military.
Despite Putin's attempts to increase his influence in the army by 'rotating" generals, it is still loyal to Shoigu. Moreover, Shoigu has created his own PMC, which could overcome the army's combat capabilities.
One thing is required of Putin - to sign the introduction of martial law, after which he and his clan will lose influence on the situation.
The situation is similar to the start of the war. After Putin agreed to the special military operation, he lost control over the army. Even if he desperately tried to preserve the image of Russia's only and all-powerful ruler.

May 4, 2023

Kremlin drone strike, Russia's reflexive control, nukes and fake deals


Who is behind the drone attack? Russia routinely blames US 

The incident looks like a typical Russian false flag operation. The reason for this carefully staged performance could be Russia's attempt to turn the West against Ukraine.
Apparently, there is an agreement between Russia and the US at the level of security officials that Ukraine doesn't strike the Red Square in exchange for Russia doesn't use nuclear weapons.
However, the Kremlin is a legitimate target for the Ukrainian army, as Russia attacked Ukraine. "We don't attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities," Zelensky said, speaking on a visit to Finland.”

April 16, 2023

Ukraine's lack of necessary weapons dooms Kyiv and Washington to defeat


The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, is convinced that Ukraine doesn't need F-16 and long-range weapons in the counter-offensive against Russian invaders

Russian military trap in making

There is a really bizarre situation. The Russian propagandists, setting the main noise background of the war, talk about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but completely forget about the Russian offensive, which, apparently, is curtailed. Wagner's Prigozhin declares the need to stop where Russian forces are and begin to defend already occupied positions.

Russian propagandists actively praise the Ukrainian army and depict Russia's future defeat in the decisive battle, thus encouraging Ukraine's counter-offensive. Why stop the Russian offensive and spread the defeatist scenarios? And is Moscow really scared by the Ukrainian army?

Not that simple. The Russian side relies on the Ukrainian counter-offensive to win as Moscow is convinced that Ukraine's army will lose without airplanes and long-range weapons. 

Russia's calculation is that with predominance in the air Russian army will be able to stop Ukraine's counter-offensive, encircle unprotected Ukrainian troops and destroy them, and after that, launch a full-scale offensive against Ukraine. 

Political decision-making vs. military 

Despite massive Western military aid to Ukraine, Russia still has the advantage in airplanes and long-range weapons. Therefore, Ukraine's offensive on the ground without protection from the air benefits Russia's military enormously. 

May 26, 2022

Putin's "Food OPEC," Shoigu's reflexive control ops, and Ukraine's lonely "final stand" against Russia's horde


It appears that the US (and, even more so, European countries) still don't fully understand the implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's end game. Additionally, to oil and gas prices increase, food prices lately had risen by 50% after Russia launched the war against Ukraine.
But if the US allows Russia to occupy Ukraine, even partly, as some Russia-paid experts suggest to the Biden Administration to save Putin's face, world food prices will double.
Russia plans to dramatically increase its share of the world food market by capturing Ukraine's fertile black soils to be able to dictate world prices. Russia is obsessed with the idea of maximizing its clout in the world's food markets, especially after losing its gas influence over Europe and the world. Controlling the world's food market would significantly improve Russia’s geopolitical standing.