Zhirinovsky, as always, clarified the situation somewhat (a fragment of the interview is in the first comment).
In particular, he explained why, in the midst of pressure from Moscow on April 9, Zelensky suddenly signed the Law on Referendums, which in itself is part of Moscow's "Plan A" for seizing Ukraine.
Zhirinovsky: “In southeastern Ukraine, some kind of popular assemblies can be held, referendums can be held urgently, and they can appeal to us. But we cannot wait.”
By signing the Law on Referendums, Zelensky demonstrated his readiness to make concessions to Moscow and play along with Putin.
Besides the fact of playing along with Moscow, Zelensky's step is also bad because those who show weakness and succumb to pressure face even greater pressure.
Instead of being satisfied with Zelensky's concession, Moscow is further increasing military pressure.
Zhirinovsky: “Troops will be introduced throughout the entire territory of Ukraine. Any resistance will be suppressed within 24 hours. And Russian flags will be hung everywhere. And there will be a cleanup operation. And no one will dare to say anything anywhere. There won't be many casualties, as they will scatter at the first shot.”
Zhirinovsky's statements are interesting because they clearly demonstrate the existence of two scenarios for seizing Ukraine: a hybrid KGB scenario through a referendum and a military one, through mass bloodshed and the physical destruction of the enemy.
Putin is behind the hybrid Plan A, and Shoigu is behind the military Plan B. Shoigu's approach prevailed over Putin's hybrid approach.
The dilemma between the hybrid seizure of Ukraine and its physical destruction existed back in the summer of 2014. Then, after a massive offensive by Shoigu's troops, Putin shifted the situation to a hybrid scenario, imposing the Minsk agreements on Ukraine. Although Shoigu insisted back then on the capture of Kyiv and all of Ukraine within two weeks, as Putin himself recounted.
Now Shoigu is acting without regard for Putin, whose press secretary Peskov himself doesn't understand what's happening. No coherent answer could be obtained from him, just as from Putin himself.
Peskov's slip of the tongue during one of the briefings, when he said that "we need to think about our own security," is curious. And he didn't mean "Russia in the shrinking NATO ring" at all – both Peskov and Putin himself understand perfectly well that NATO doesn't threaten Russia in any way, but rather that Shoigu has completely gone out of control, and this threatens the security of Putin himself and his entourage.
The statement by the German Minister of Defense that Moscow must explain its actions shows that Merkel, during her recent telephone conversation with Putin, also did not receive any coherent answer from him, since Putin himself does not know what is happening and how it will all end.
Putin's refusal to negotiate in the Normandy format is also explained by the fact that he does not control the Russian army and Shoigu, but continues to hide this, trying to maintain the appearance of control over the situation, and, as events unfold, adapts to Shoigu.
Putin habitually tries to gain advantages from Shoigu's aggressive actions. One of these advantages was Zelensky's signing of the Law on Referendum. However, having appeased Putin with this step, Zelensky had no influence on Shoigu.
Zhirinovsky also perfectly senses the political conjuncture and adapts to Shoigu's scenario on the fly.
There is nothing new in the fact that Putin does not control Shoigu and the army. In essence, since Shoigu's appointment as Minister of Defense, which resulted from a staged compromising television production involving the then-current Minister of Defense Serdyukov, a dual power structure has been established in Russia, and it continues to this day.
The forces of the two sides are approximately equal, and the main clashes occur behind the scenes. Only staged love scenes in the Siberian taiga are presented to the public.
Shoigu is also interested in maintaining the appearance of subordination to Putin. He believes that this will allow him to shift all responsibility for his war crimes in Ukraine and Syria onto Putin and come to power in Russia with a clean slate.
It is enough to recall how many times Putin publicly demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, but they are still there. And Putin has to not only put up with this, but also pretend that it corresponds to his original plans.
This means that the threat of war against Ukraine is absolutely real. It is not beneficial to Putin, but it is beneficial to Shoigu. At least Shoigu is convinced of this.
Putin does not have the power to stop Shoigu and move to his "plan A" with referendums and a hybrid takeover of Ukraine.
An attempt to dismiss Shoigu would immediately lead to a military coup. Therefore, Putin has only one option left – to adapt to Shoigu and pretend that he controls the course of events, hoping that he will once again manage to steer the situation in his favor, albeit with significant reputational and economic losses.
