Kremlin drone strike, Russia's reflexive control, nukes and fake deals

By Irina Severin  |  UAObserver 

Kremlin drone strike, Russia's reflexive control, nukes, and fake deals

The incident looks like a typical Russian false flag operation. The reason for this carefully staged performance could be Russia's attempt to turn the West against Ukraine.

Apparently, there is an agreement between Russia and the US at the level of security officials that Ukraine doesn't strike the Red Square in exchange for Russia doesn't use nuclear weapons.

However, the Kremlin is a legitimate target for the Ukrainian army, as Russia attacked Ukraine.

"We don't attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities," Zelensky said, speaking on a visit to Finland.”

Putin's "Food OPEC," Shoigu's reflexive control ops, and Ukraine's lonely "final stand" against Russia's horde

Putin's "Food OPEC," Shoigu's reflexive control ops, and Ukraine's lonely "final stand" against Russia's Horde

It appears that the US (and, even more so, European countries) still don't fully understand the implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's end game. Additionally, to oil and gas prices increase, food prices lately had risen by 50% after Russia launched the war against Ukraine.

But if the US allows Russia to occupy Ukraine, even partly, as some Russia-paid experts suggest to the Biden Administration to save Putin's face, world food prices will double.

Russia plans to dramatically increase its share of the world food market by capturing Ukraine's fertile black soils to be able to dictate world prices. Russia is obsessed with the idea of maximizing its clout in the world's food markets, especially after losing its gas influence over Europe and the world. Controlling the world's food market would significantly improve Russia’s geopolitical standing.

Guterres and Putin: it's complicated

These days, the media has written a lot about "Putin's hunt for the UN Secretary-General" in Kyiv, giving Guterres the aura of a particular enemy of Putin. In this context, one should not forget that Guterres is Putin's creature in big politics. His election resulted from a brilliant Russian special operation at the UN.

Guterres became the trump card that Moscow suddenly pulled out of its sleeve after masterfully discrediting the well-established candidate for the UN Secretary-General position (Natalia Gherman, Moldova) at the very last moment. Since there were no other acceptable candidates at hand, there was nothing left to do but elect the Kremlin candidate Guterres. 

Steinmeier Formula: from War of Attrition to War of Annihilation

Russia continues its war against Ukraine, concentrates its military forces on the border with Ukraine, massively increases its military presence inside the occupied Donbas, and simultaneously demands Ukrainian military disengagement as a precondition for the Normandy Summit of Four. Such a demand is pure nonsense. 

What does Zelensky expect from the Normandy Summit of Four - signing a capitulation in the presence of Putin, Merkel, and Macron? It would be suicidal not only for Zelensky and Ukraine but also for Europe as this would lead to a large-scale Syria kind of war in Europe, replacing controllable Russian partial occupation of Ukraine. 

Now Russia is leading a war of attrition against Ukraine. The recognition of the Russian military exclave inside Ukraine would provoke Moscow to start a war of annihilation against Ukraine while pretending to be a peace-maker. 

 

Shoigu already promised "to stop Ukrainian extremists" and regretted that "it was not done earlier."

Could be 'Russian trace' behind Ukrainian plane downing?

 UAObserver

The often-asked question lately could be ‘Russian trace’ behind the downing Ukrainian plane? 

While Iranians don't have a reason to hit a Ukrainian plane, Russia does have a clear motive. Therefore. the “Russian trace” should not be discarded. 

Since 2013, Russia methodically pressured Ukraine into obedience by different military and terrorist means, using a false flag operation approach. The downing of the Ukrainian plane in Baghdad could be another false flag operation meant to increase pressure on Ukraine and personally on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

The owner of the downed aircraft is a Ukrainian oligarch and one of Zelensky's close allies and sponsor of his campaign Kolomoisky. Downing the plane is a kind of threat to both Zelensky and Kolomoisky of what they should expect if they don't obey Russia. 

Що далі? Рятувати обличчя Путіна чи Україну?

By Irina Severin  |  UAObserver 

Переляканий Путін після збиття малазійського Боїнгу

Зараз, коли Мінські домовленості довели свою неспроможність припинити війну Росії проти України важливо згадати контекст, в якому вони з'явилися. Чому домовленості Мінські, та чому перемовини відбувалися саме в МІнську? 

Після збитого Боінгу та Іловайського котла, коли військова російська присутність в Україні була очевидна для всіх, Путін почувався військовим злочинцем та боявся, що якщо виїде на Захід, його заарештують. Саме тому  було вирішено провести зустріч в Мінську.

Тоді дивним чином всі зусилля Заходу були напралвені на те, щоби дати можливість Путіну зберігти обличчя в обмін на відведення росийськмх військ з України. На Заході публіковалися статі на тему "Let Putin save face". Фраза "Дайте Путіну зберегти обличчя" повторювалась як мантра. 

Україні потрібен не Мінськ - 3, а Берлін - 1

By Irina Severin  |  UAObserver 

Після зустрічи в Нормандському форматі в Парижі вже всім  зрозуміло, що МІнськіі домовленості неспроможні зупинита війну.  Про необхідність внесення змін в домовленості сказала Меркель, більш того - не визнати проблеми не зміг і Путін, фактично погодишісь на зміни. 

Але внесення окремих змін в непрацюючий документ не вирішить проблему. Україна має запропонувати в Нормандському форматі не "Мінськ-3" як пропонує Москва, а Берлін-1.  

Берлінська угода мають базуватися на фактах, а не на російській пропаганді.  Мінські домовленості мають в своїй основі хибні російські ідеологемі, що в Україні - "внутрішній конфлікт" з міфічними "сепаратистами". В той час, як в дійсності в Україні - тимчасова російська військова окупація частини країни. 

Український ринок землі та російські 'кабанчики'

By Irina Severin  |  UAObserver 

Давід Арахамія

Ринок землі є "закритим для іноземців" як Давід Арахамія щойно підкреслив. Але саме тому Зленський наполягає на прискоренні надання громадянства росіянам - тобто землі Москва буде скуповувати через них. 

Прискорення надання украіїнськjго громадянства росіянам - це ще один стратегічний наказ Путіна Зеленськjму, який дозволить Москві отримає тіньовий контроль над українськими землями та Украіною, перетворив українців на жебраків и власній країні. 

Цікаво, що всі завдання Путіна Зеленський виконує ударними темпами, щоб українці навіть не встигли отямитись та захиститися.

Europeans cover up Russia's preparation for further military attacks on Ukraine

By Irina Severin

France and Germany's joint statement plays into Russia's hands

The author of the article with telling title “Russia demands prior warning after OSCE drone catches it transporting weapons of death to Ukraine by night” highlights that  "The Joint Statement from France and Germany was undiplomatically blunt in its message. It not only condemned the downing of the drone but stated that:

“Evidence collected by SMM suggests Russia and the separatists it backs bear responsibility for the targeting and downing of the LR UAV, blinding the mission at this particular spot."

However, mentioning inexistent "separatists" - the notion which is a product of Russian propaganda from the very beginning gives Russia an ideal pretext for plausible deniability. Russian hybrid and later military occupation from the start was orchestrated as a fake separatist uprising using propaganda and other deception tools. 

Russia intends to impose Transnistrization scheme on Ukraine

By Irina Severin | UAObserver 

The victory of the pro-Moscow candidate Igor Dodon in the Presidential election in Moldova is not only the EU's loss of the popularity contest to Russia but a sign of a complete failure of the EU policy in the region.

The EU loses its position despite the fact that it not only offers a massive amount of aid to the country but pays a significant part of its budget. However, the public either does not know about this or sees this as a bribing of Moldovan authorities by the EU bureaucrats as Russian propaganda touts this.
During the last decade, Moscow runs a relentless disinformation campaign in Moldova, but there are no signs of informing the public about the EU assistance, neither by the EU nor by the Moldovan authorities.

Moreover, the money paid by the EU for years for the construction and renovation of kindergartens, hospitals, and schools in Transnistria (not in Moldova!) is attributed by the locals to Moscow and seen as Russian investment in the development of the region.  

Both the population in Transnistria and in Moldova are sure that this is Moscow's support for Transnistria as the region is the territory occupied by Russia what was recognized by the ECHR. The presence of the 14th Russian Army makes Transnistria Russia's military outpost in Europe. 

EU's financial assistance to the breakaway region paradoxically is one of the reasons why Moldovans want "more Russia" in Moldova and vote for Dodon, who promised to bring more of Russian help. On the opposite side, the EU got an image of the force corrupting authorities but don't help the population in Moldova. Strangely, the EU contribution to Transnistria development instead of making Moldova more attractive for the Moldovans from Transnistria played exactly into Russian hands.

If a couple of years ago the majority of Moldovans favored European integration. Lately, getting closer to Russia favors about 50 percent of Moldova.

Furthermore, after obtaining such a success in Moldova and Transnistria Moscow tries to impose the same model on the occupied territories in Ukraine. Russia would like to preserve its military and administrative power In Donbas but making Europeans to pay for the reconstruction of the Donbas region, occupied by the Russian military.

The logic is simple - if this scheme works for Russia in Transnistria and Moldova, why not impose the same scheme on Ukraine?

Transnistization scheme as inspiration for Russia to occupy Donbas

The corrupt "Transnistrian scheme" from the start was a model, which Moscow conceived as the basis for Moscow's plan for Donbas. In fact, the Donbas military campaign was initiated to impose the Transnistrization model to Ukraine.  Without the existence of such a model in Moldova Moscow would never occupy Donbas.

The Transnistrian model is exactly what provides the Minsk agreement - legalization of the Russian military base in Ukraine, assuring its funding by the Western donors with gradual "Transnistrisation" of the whole Ukraine as this happened in Moldova.

Another Moldovan scheme which Moscow failed to impose on Moldova but still intends to implement it in Ukraine is the Memorandum Kozak scheme. Russia created to would-be republics on the East of Ukraine in order to federalize Ukraine and impose equal rights on all three entities that would make the rest of Ukraine to lose in score 1: 2 to two artificially created by Moscow republics. 

In Moldova, the same scheme was achieved by creating three subjects of the federation including two pro-Russian entities Transnistria and Gagauzia against one Moldova. In Moldova, the deal has failed at the last moment, but why not try the same trick in Ukraine?