By Irina Severin
Talk to real master, not shadow
Before the G-20 Summit, Putin assured the world in an official interview that he has not ruled out backing a U.S.-led military operation in Syria if the Kremlin gets concrete proof that an alleged chemical attack on civilians was committed by Bashar Assad’s regime.
I would not doubt the sincerity of Putin’s intention. He bases all his prestige on the Soviet Victory in WWII over the atrocious regime of Hitler. Still, now he finds himself and Russia on the side of the “Syrian Hitler,” using gas against his own people. Putin understands that despite his massive propaganda efforts, he cannot manipulate public opinion for long. It seems he suddenly realized there is a risk of remaining on the wrong side of history.
For the West, the Kremlin's condition is relatively easy to satisfy, as there is enough proof that only the Assad forces could conduct the chemical attack. However, the next day – a day before the Summit - Putin unexpectedly produced a U-turn, publicly named John Kerry a “liar” using blatant manipulation. Putin’s sudden change of mind is the main intrigue of the G-20 Summit and deserves attention.
Failed Mega Deal
What happened in between? A day before the Summit, Putin had a pompous meeting with the Chinese leader, expecting to sign a mega-deal for gas supply to China. Then, the top Chinese official stated that any military actions in the Middle East would lead to oil price growth, which made China reject the strike. As for the advertised “mega-deal,” expected by Russia, it failed as the Chinese continued insisting on a half-price of the price Russia is getting in Europe.
Moreover, a couple days before the Summit, China signed another mega-deal with gas-rich Turkmenistan, more than doubling gas exports to China. Next day after the Summit China struck $30 billion deal with Kazakhstan including the purchase of the $5 billion stakes in the giant Kashagan oilfield.
Therefore, China is not in a hurry and can quietly wait until Russia becomes totally isolated by the West and be ready for a slow technical takeover of Russia. China is not interested in investing in Russia, except for big industrial projects in the Far East, with a precondition that the working force on these enterprises will be exclusively from China. Despite the high oil and gas prices, the Russian economy is sinking earlier or later, and Putin will have to accept the Chinese proposition. This would mean a “forever concession” by China of Russia’s the Far East.
Russia’s Political Bluffing
Russia's dependence on China is growing, which makes Putin nervous. Moreover, China has increased its influence in the region, which Moscow considers its “legitimate sphere of interests” and gradually ousts Russia. However, Russia does not dare to complain. Instead, it pretends to have a very special relationship and a strong alliance with China instead of a failing relationship with the West.
China routinely calls Russia a “major country” and lets Moscow fight its revisionist fights with the West. At the same time, China does not consider Russia to be an equal partner. There are pictures of Chinese President Xi Jinping and American President Barack Obama on a Chinese official web page, but there are no pictures of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This shows China’s real priorities.
At the same time, Putin’s dependence on China explains Putin’s U-turn. Trying hard to please the Chinese President, Putin reversed his recent declaration on possibly joining the international effort against Bashar Assad and did this by calling John Kerry a “liar.”
Upgrading Role for China
Putin’s unfortunate position, which he masks through massive propaganda efforts, promoting his image and ideology in the West, makes him useless as a negotiator on Syria. China is the real master of the situation China.
From this perspective, the Chinese and the Western positions on Syria coincide but contradict Russia's interests: maintaining the civil war in Syria is a precondition for high oil prices, on which the entire Russian economy totally depends.
China should realize that as soon as the situation in Syria is resolved, the oil prices will inevitably go down. This could become the first international action where China can demonstrate its political maturity and responsibility for stability in the World.
Beijing could like this new role. China already follows the example of the U.S. and the EU, offering assistance to different countries. Cash-rich China can show authentic leadership by helping Syria after the war is over.
Suppose the leader of China thinks that the growth of oil prices is the only objection to the standard action in Syria. In that case, the negotiations should be conducted with Xi, not the politically impotent Putin.
From this perspective, the Chinese and the Western positions on Syria objectively coincide but contradict to Russia's interests: maintaining the civil war in Syria is a precondition for high oil prices, on which the entire Russian economy critically depends.
China should realize that as soon as the situation in Syria is resolved, the oil prices will inevitably go down. This could become the first international action where China can demonstrate its political maturity and responsibility for stability in the World. Beijing could like this new role. China already follows the example of the U.S. and the EU, offering assistance to different countries. Cash-rich China can show real leadership by helping Syria after the conflict is finished.
