By Irina Severin | Original in Russian published on 8 September 2014
"Russia sometimes wins wars, but always loses peace"
Recognizing reality as a precondition for the right solutionTo stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, to preserve its independence and re-establish territorial integrity, it is important to assess soberly the real situation, to clear it from the myths, imposed by Russian propaganda, in order not to have to play along involuntarily with the scenario, imposed by Russia.
First, Ukraine should admit defeat in the battle with Russia’s regular armed forces for control of the part of the Ukrainian territory at the east of Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to take two basic steps: to recognize de facto Russia as a belligerent side in the war and to recognize the territory, controlled by Russia in the existing today boundaries as the territory, temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation.
Kremlin special military "Humanitarian" Trojan horse" operation as a breaking point
Ukraine failed to defend its territorial integrity in the result of the Kremlin special military "Humanitarian" Trojan horse" operation. Under the guise of “humanitarian convoy”, Russia managed to carry out massive supplies of the arms and the units of the Russian regular army to the eastern regions of Ukraine.
From this point on the east of the country, Ukraine fought not against Russia’s mercenaries and “the Russian soldiers in vacation”, but against the Russian regular troops. “Humanitarian special operation" has fundamentally changed the balance of power in favor of Russia and Russia’s forces in the Donbas. Russia continues to deny their presence there as it did first about the Crimea. At the same time, the advance of the Russian troops in Ukraine during the last days is nobody’s secret.
For the effectiveness of the Peace plan, not only Ukraine but also the entire international community should recognize the fact of Russia’s occupation of the part of Ukraine. The West should continue increasing pressure over the Russian Federation by tightening sanctions to increase the price of the Russian military actions in Ukraine.
Fortified shield for arresting Russian aggression in Ukraine
By recognizing the part of the country as a territory, temporarily occupied by Russia and stopping the Anti-terrorist operation in the Donbas region Ukraine will open to the West the possibility to grant Ukraine defensive weapons. In such a case, the supply of the arms to Ukraine will play the role of deterrent of bloodshed, not lead to its escalation as the West fears. Ukraine will not use the weapons for regaining control over already occupied by Russia territory, but for preventing Russia’s advance into new territory.
The key role in the Peace plan belongs to the West, which should provide weapons, enough to deter the aggression. Combined with the sanctions raising the price of occupation this will give the opportunity to isolate and stop Russian aggression in Ukraine.
However, this plan will be effective only in the case of the well-coordinated efforts of the entire international community. In such case over time, the international pressure will make Russia itself to abandon the occupied territories and start looking inward resolving its own internal problems, not continuing occupation of new territories – the trend we observe today.
Moreover, in such case, Moscow would have to ensure the viability of the occupied territories, consistently and deliberately destroyed by Russian paramilitary and regular troops, what will become the unsupportable burden for the struggling with own economic problems country. This will lead to Russia’s peaceful surrender and reverse to the pre-Crimean status quo. The history shows that Russia sometimes wins wars but always loses the peace.
The role of International Organisations
The residents of the temporarily occupied territories should get the opportunity to move to the territory, controlled by Ukraine to prevent the repressions against the local population by the Russian invaders that take place in the region now.
This Peace Plan will save lives both of the Ukrainians, defending their country and people, and the Russians, either forced to perform the criminal orders of their higher-ups or falling under the spell of the Kremlin’s criminal propaganda, intentionally inciting hatred of the Russians toward the Ukrainians. The international community should also recognize the criminal character of the Russian propaganda and its major role in the Russian war against Ukraine.
The international organizations should continue monitoring the situation in the region. The only OSCE's efforts could be not enough, as the organization is experiencing a strong influence on its activities of the country-aggressor. Russia could easily affect either the organization’s decision-making process or its funding or both.
Correcting psychological deviations
When the economic pressure will give the results, Russia will be more prone to look for a diplomatic solution. Russia’s clear peaceful defeat is the only thing that can stop Putin’s further aggression against Ukraine and other states. The reason for spreading Russian aggression is primarily psychological: Putin’s confidence in his invincibility.
This “Winner syndrome” pushes him and the nation to new territorial conquests. Russia needs an obvious defeat to overcome this syndrome. This will give the opportunity to Russia to become a normal country that respects international laws and engage in its own development, rather than entertaining its imperial drive by occupying new territories.
Containing Russian corruption
Released from a war of attrition, led by Russia against Ukraine (and by default against the EU), Kiev will get an opportunity to undertake the necessary reforms and boost its economy. This approach would protect Ukraine from Russia’s corrupting influence. The schemes, corrupting Ukrainian politicians, were Moscow’s main weapon, keeping Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence during all years of Ukraine's independence.
Economic recovery and integration with the West will make Ukraine a natural magnet for the territories temporarily occupied by Russia, while Russia will not be able to offer anything to them. The example of Crimea only proves this.
Russia’s “take over” technology
It is important to understand that the so-called self-proclaimed republics "Lugansk Popular Republic" and "Donetsk Popular Republic" - are anything but Russia’s false flag special operations, designed to occupy Ukrainian territory. If these projects are successful, Russia will continue to use them throughout the world - be this Spanish Catalonia or the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China.
Understanding the mechanism of the Russian technology of territorial conquests must unite all countries for coordinated action to stop Russian military aggression in its present borders and gradual start returning the situation to its original settings and reestablishment of the International law.
Imposed by Russia federalization is not a solution
An alternative to the peaceful isolation and containment of Russian military aggression is imposed by Russia federalization of Ukraine with the incorporation of controlled by Russia territory. This would mean a "shared sovereignty" with Russia over Ukraine, gradual isolation from the West and drawing it in Russia's sphere of influence by involving Ukrainian elites in common corrupt projects.
The most negative for Ukraine Russian scenario envisages the transformation of Ukraine from a potentially strong ally of the West into its fervent opponent. There are no halftones in Russian foreign policy. Russia has strong brainwashing and social engineering technologies necessary for such transformation.
This scenario is inevitable in case of the policy of appeasement of Russia and accepting that there is no Russia’s war against Ukraine, just an “internal Ukrainian conflict”. Imposing this artificially created scheme on international community by means of all available propaganda and diplomatic tools is Russia’s main battleground these days. In such way, Russia wants to maintain its full control over the part of Ukrainian territory while Ukraine and its donors should pay for reconstruction of the region intentionally ruined by the Russian troops. Claiming the role of “pacificator” in the settlement of “internal Ukrainian conflict”, Russia will demand lifting Western sanctions and reintegration into the world on its own conditions.
Russia’s “Ukrainian conflict” strategy
Simultaneously Russia will continue its war of attrition against Ukraine pretending that it does not control terrorist actions of alleged “separatists” (in reality Russia’s mercenaries and Russian troops). In such way, Russia will continue to spread its terror not only in Donbass, but also over the rest of Ukraine and preparing for new military actions by sending “humanitarian convoys” with armament and troops to Donbass.
In fact, Russia suggests a kind of shared sovereignty with Ukraine over the occupied territory, which Moscow will gradually expand over the rest of Ukraine by spreading terror and corrupting national and local authorities until converting Ukraine into a failed state, unable to exist without reunification with Russia.
Strengthened by Ukraine and encouraged by successful special take over operations, Russia would become an insurmountable threat for both Europe and the whole world. For now, the world has a choice.
Predetermined consequences of this scenario, designed in Russia’s “asymmetric war” laboratories, explain why the clean break and isolation of Russian aggression is the only way to preserve Ukrainian independence and gradually reverse the situation back to normal. This will be a well-deserved lesson for Russia: all destructive elements intentionally imposed on Ukraine like calculatedly induced misery and terror, designed to destroy Ukraine, will start to work against Russia. Moscow should pay this price, not Ukraine or the West.
Russia’s defeat as longer-term gain
If Ukraine manages to maintain its independence and build an attractive state model for its citizens’, it will become a positive example for Russia. This will help Russia also eventually to integrate into the international community based on modern principles and values; not continue imposing on world its medieval feudal model, operating in Russia today and actively impose by Moscow on Europe via its ultra-right and ultra-left allies in the European Union.
The Peace plan on arresting and reverse Russian aggression, based on the real vision of the situation and not on a fantasy, spread by Russian propaganda around the world, will preserve the fundamental international rules instead of adopting the actions of the aggressor that put the world on the brink of disaster. The Peace plan also requires a review of the role of Russia as a country-aggressor in the international organizations, especially in the UN Security Council.
The Peace plan requires a deep understanding and coordinated actions by all members of the international community in favor of peace and prosperity. An alternative to this plan is a state of permanent chaos, controlled from Moscow, the signs of which we observe today.