November 4, 2023
Putin's New Reflexive Control Operation or What was the goal of the rumor spread by Russians about Putin's death?
September 16, 2023
Putin's Golden Share in American elections or Why Biden doesn't supply Ukraine with ATACAMS and F-16s?
Why won't Biden supply Ukraine with ATACAMS despite Congress's bipartisan support, except for Putin's faction inside the GOP, which understandably desperately opposes any aid to Ukraine?
June 24, 2023
As for the continuation of the story, Putin and Prigozhin understood differently the deal they made via Lukashenko. Putin won't fire Shoigu, which was the main condition of Prigozhin. Not because Putin doesn't want to, he can't.
The fact that yesterday, Alexei Diumin was called to the Kremlin means that Putin counted on Prigozhin to eliminate Shoigu to replace him with his long-time bodyguard and loyalist Diumin finally.
In 2021 after the Duma elections, Putin already tried to replace Shoigu with his other former bodyguard Yevgeny Zinichev, who then occupied the same position as earlier Shoigu - the head of the Emergency Ministry.
June 17, 2023
|By swearing allegiance to Shoigu, "Akhmat" and Kadyrov crossed the line, which is punishable |
The scandal between Prigozhin and Shoigu involving Kadyrov, Delimkhanov, and Putin has changed the Russian political landscape a bit. However, it was not Prigozhin who framed Putin by refusing to sign an agreement with Shoigu, as it looks like, but Kadyrov, who signed it. Especially so as Shoigu issued his order without Putin's approval, challenging him.
The "Akhmat" Special Rapid Response Unit is a subdivision of the Russian Guard, personally subordinate to Putin and headed by his former bodyguard Zolotov. "Akhmat" in no way is not "a volunteer unit" mentioned in Shoigu's order.
Putin created the Russian Guard as a counterbalance to Shoigu's army for Putin's protection after one of the attempts on his life. Putin let Kadyrov create a de facto private army located in Chechnya which was formally subordinated to the Russian Guard in exchange for Kadyrov's promise to be "Putin's infantry" protecting him and his clan. But the sudden public Akhmat signing of an agreement with Shoigu meant an over to the side of the rival clan.
June 12, 2023
Defense minister Sergei Shoigu's directive demanding that all ‘volunteer detachments’ must sign military contracts by the end of the month aimed at taking under control Wagner and other paramilitary formations, not subordinates to him.
The directive was not agreed with Putin. Which especially important that these paramilitary formations belong to the competing Putin clan and initially were meant to balance Shoigu's extensive military force, directly subordinated and loyal to him. By such a move made under the pretext of aligning all military formations, Shoigu substantially weakened Putin's clan.
The main target of the Shoigu directive is Wagner, whose owner Prigozhin lately openly criticized Shoigu for ineffectiveness. Lately, there were more so-called private armies created to protect the Putin clan or, de facto, to protect the owners of companies and heads of the regions, as lately, weakened by sanctions and isolation Putin started to cease being a guarantor for their positions, or property rights.
May 6, 2023
Even if Putin tries to capitalize on the attack of drones on the Kremlin, the larger context shows it was Shoigu's way of forcing Putin to introduce martial law.
May 4, 2023
|Who is behind the drone attack? Russia routinely blames US |
April 16, 2023
|The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, is convinced that Ukraine doesn't need F-16 and long-range weapons in the counter-offensive against Russian invaders|
Russian military trap in making
There is a really bizarre situation. The Russian propagandists, setting the main noise background of the war, talk about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but completely forget about the Russian offensive, which, apparently, is curtailed. Wagner's Prigozhin declares the need to stop where Russian forces are and begin to defend already occupied positions.
Russian propagandists actively praise the Ukrainian army and depict Russia's future defeat in the decisive battle, thus encouraging Ukraine's counter-offensive. Why stop the Russian offensive and spread the defeatist scenarios? And is Moscow really scared by the Ukrainian army?
Not that simple. The Russian side relies on the Ukrainian counter-offensive to win as Moscow is convinced that Ukraine's army will lose without airplanes and long-range weapons.
Russia's calculation is that with predominance in the air Russian army will be able to stop Ukraine's counter-offensive, encircle unprotected Ukrainian troops and destroy them, and after that, launch a full-scale offensive against Ukraine.
Political decision-making vs. military
Despite massive Western military aid to Ukraine, Russia still has the advantage in airplanes and long-range weapons. Therefore, Ukraine's offensive on the ground without protection from the air benefits Russia's military enormously.