November 4, 2023

Putin's New Reflexive Control Operation or What for Russians spread rumors about Putin's death?

By Irina Severin | UAObserver

Putin's New Reflexive Control Operation or What was the goal of the rumor spread by Russians about Putin's death?

Foremost, the rumor was addressed to the Western leaders, not to the Russian public as some suggest. From the Reflexive Control point of view, the information about Putin's death should provoke shock and fear about chaos in Russia as a country with nuclear weapons in case of Putin's death.
The Western leaders should imagine a nightmare scenario with terrifying pictures of a bloody civil war in Russia with chaos and nuclear weapons without control spread to the Middle East or elsewhere.
They should think: maybe it would be better that he is still alive - despite being predictably unpredictable, he is better than somebody unknown like semi-crazy Patrushev. At least Putin has mild manners, and it is possible to converse with him. And this is exactly what happened.

September 16, 2023

Putin's Golden Share in American elections or Why Biden doesn't supply Ukraine with ATACAMS and F-16s?

 Irina Severin | UAObserver

Why Biden doesn’t supply Ukraine with ATACAMS despite Congress's bipartisan support, except for the radical Putinite faction inside the GOP opposing any aid to Ukraine.

Biden's reelection directly depends on Putin. Putin's "Golden share" in the American presidential election is the Russia-sponsored third-party candidates, which ultimately decide the destiny of the American elections, shifting the balance in favor of one or another candidate.  

This was the case in 2016 when the Green Party candidate shifted the balance in Trump's favor. The same happened in 2020 when the Libertarian candidate decided the election's result, favoring Biden's win. 

Both were Putin-sponsored spoilers meant to manipulate the result of the US election, and they did it in both cases very successfully.

July 24, 2023

Biden planned to turn Ukraine into big Bucha but something went wrong

Irina Severin | UAObserver

Biden named William Burns in his Cabinet.

Emboldened by Burns' new role, Putin plans to extend aggression 

CIA Director and former ambassador to Russia, Burns is famous for appeasing and accommodating Putin's regime and imposing limitations and bans on Ukraine's military actions - from refusing necessary for Ukraine's victory weapons to banning targeting Russian military objects, from which Russia terrorizes Ukraine with constant missile attacks. 

Nothing strange that Biden's appointment of him to the main decision-making role in the White House alarmed Ukraine and those who oppose Putin's regime. Considering Burns' passion for pleasing Putin, his new position means the direct Kremlin's ruling of the White House.

Obviously, Biden's decision is terrifying news both for Ukraine and NATO members. Putin's main goal is to neutralize NATO and move it back beyond the sphere of influence of the former USSR.

With Burns' central role in the White House, Putin got closer to achieving his goal than ever before. The nomination means direct reassurance of Biden's commitment to Putin, which means that NATO, in its current form, will exist until Russia's first challenge to NATO countries.

This explains, as insiders inform, Putin's sudden inspiration to occupy parts of Poland and Lituania to create the land corridor to Kaliningrad. With Burn's nomination, Putin's ambitions defy the limitations of the former Warsaw Pact. "Russia doesn't end anywhere" is Putin's mantra and strategic expansionist goal.

Since Burns officially became the main decision-maker in the US, Putin is sure that Biden won't react to Russia's aggression against Poland, Lithuania, etc., as without American support, NATO's Article 5 will never work. As soon as NATO fails to activate Article 5, NATO will stop to exist.

June 27, 2023

Why Ukraine's "broad counteroffensive" not started yet?

Irina Severin | UAobserver

June 27, 2023


Lack of offensive weapons supply by the US and other allies

Ukraine has to be prepared, and most of all, Ukraine needs offensive weapons. For now, Biden makes Ukraine advance without appropriate weapons, which would lead to the immediate obliteration of the entire Ukraine army by Russian forces, possessing supremacy in the air.

Ukraine can't take chances and doesn't have second chances for simple reasons. It is impossible to resurrect fallen fighters, who, in bulk - are civilians forced by Russian aggression to become soldiers. 

Ukraine should do everything to win and to win with minimal losses. Ukraine is a European nation and can't, like Russia, use its people as expandable material. 

Ukraine needs more time and weapons to prepare for the final attack, which will undoubtedly be swift and decisive.  

Ukraine needs to win, not commit spectacular self-sacrifice live 

June 24, 2023

Prigozhin's short-lived triumph and Putin's next failure to replace Shoigu

The videos of Prigozhin and Wagner leaving Rostov looks like Prigozhin's triumph Putin only can dream about.  For jealous Putin, this is what a nightmare looks like.

As for the continuation of the story, Putin and Prigozhin understood differently the deal they made via Lukashenko. Putin won't fire Shoigu, which was the main condition of Prigozhin. Not because Putin doesn't want to, he can't. 

The fact that yesterday, Alexei Diumin was called to the Kremlin means that Putin counted on Prigozhin to eliminate Shoigu to replace him with his long-time bodyguard and loyalist Diumin finally. 

In 2021 after the Duma elections, Putin already tried to replace Shoigu with his other former bodyguard Yevgeny Zinichev, who then occupied the same position as earlier Shoigu - the head of the Emergency Ministry. 

June 17, 2023

Did Shoigu overplay Prigozhin and who framed whom?


By swearing allegiance to Shoigu, "Akhmat" and Kadyrov crossed the line, which is punishable 

The scandal between Prigozhin and Shoigu involving Kadyrov, Delimkhanov, and Putin has changed the Russian political landscape a bit. However,  it was not Prigozhin who framed Putin by refusing to sign an agreement with Shoigu, as it looks like, but Kadyrov, who signed it. Especially so as Shoigu issued his order without Putin's approval, challenging him. 

The "Akhmat" Special Rapid Response Unit is a subdivision of the Russian Guard, personally subordinate to Putin and headed by his former bodyguard Zolotov.  "Akhmat" in no way is not "a volunteer unit" mentioned in Shoigu's order. 

Putin created the Russian Guard as a counterbalance to Shoigu's army for Putin's protection after one of the attempts on his life. Putin let Kadyrov create a de facto private army located in Chechnya which was formally subordinated to the Russian Guard in exchange for Kadyrov's promise to be "Putin's infantry" protecting him and his clan. But the sudden public Akhmat signing of an agreement with Shoigu meant an over to the side of the rival clan.

June 12, 2023

Shoigu targets Prigozhin, hits Putin clan


Defense minister Sergei Shoigu's directive demanding that all ‘volunteer detachments’ must sign military contracts by the end of the month aimed at taking under control Wagner and other paramilitary formations, not subordinates to him. 

The directive was not agreed with Putin. Which especially important that these paramilitary formations belong to the competing Putin clan and initially were meant to balance Shoigu's extensive military force, directly subordinated and loyal to him. By such a move made under the pretext of aligning all military formations, Shoigu substantially weakened Putin's clan.  

The main target of the Shoigu directive is Wagner, whose owner Prigozhin lately openly criticized Shoigu for ineffectiveness. Lately, there were more so-called private armies created to protect the Putin clan or, de facto, to protect the owners of companies and heads of the regions, as lately, weakened by sanctions and isolation Putin started to cease being a guarantor for their positions, or property rights.

May 6, 2023

Drone attack: Shoigu's attempt to force Putin to introduce martial law

Even if Putin tries to capitalize on the attack of drones on the Kremlin, the larger context shows it was Shoigu's way of forcing Putin to introduce martial law.

Martial law would mean a de facto military coup, as levers of power would pass from Putin and FSB to Shoigu and the military.
Despite Putin's attempts to increase his influence in the army by 'rotating" generals, it is still loyal to Shoigu. Moreover, Shoigu has created his own PMC, which could overcome the army's combat capabilities.
One thing is required of Putin - to sign the introduction of martial law, after which he and his clan will lose influence on the situation.
The situation is similar to the start of the war. After Putin agreed to the special military operation, he lost control over the army. Even if he desperately tried to preserve the image of Russia's only and all-powerful ruler.

May 4, 2023

Kremlin drone strike, Russia's reflexive control, nukes and fake deals


Who is behind the drone attack? Russia routinely blames US 

The incident looks like a typical Russian false flag operation. The reason for this carefully staged performance could be Russia's attempt to turn the West against Ukraine.
Apparently, there is an agreement between Russia and the US at the level of security officials that Ukraine doesn't strike the Red Square in exchange for Russia doesn't use nuclear weapons.
However, the Kremlin is a legitimate target for the Ukrainian army, as Russia attacked Ukraine. "We don't attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities," Zelensky said, speaking on a visit to Finland.”

April 16, 2023

Ukraine's lack of necessary weapons dooms Kyiv and Washington to defeat


The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, is convinced that Ukraine doesn't need F-16 and long-range weapons in the counter-offensive against Russian invaders

Russian military trap in making

There is a really bizarre situation. The Russian propagandists, setting the main noise background of the war, talk about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but completely forget about the Russian offensive, which, apparently, is curtailed. Wagner's Prigozhin declares the need to stop where Russian forces are and begin to defend already occupied positions.

Russian propagandists actively praise the Ukrainian army and depict Russia's future defeat in the decisive battle, thus encouraging Ukraine's counter-offensive. Why stop the Russian offensive and spread the defeatist scenarios? And is Moscow really scared by the Ukrainian army?

Not that simple. The Russian side relies on the Ukrainian counter-offensive to win as Moscow is convinced that Ukraine's army will lose without airplanes and long-range weapons. 

Russia's calculation is that with predominance in the air Russian army will be able to stop Ukraine's counter-offensive, encircle unprotected Ukrainian troops and destroy them, and after that, launch a full-scale offensive against Ukraine. 

Political decision-making vs. military 

Despite massive Western military aid to Ukraine, Russia still has the advantage in airplanes and long-range weapons. Therefore, Ukraine's offensive on the ground without protection from the air benefits Russia's military enormously.