November 20, 2014

Russian technology of building Eurasian Empire from Vladivostok to Lisbon


Russian Technology of"small war" on enemy’s expense
The attacks against the Donetsk airport, which became the symbol of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s intervention, don't stop for several months. As the defenders of the airport witness, periodically alongside the Russian heavy weapons assaults some groups of strangely dressed and apparently drugged people attack the airport in a way as "if they were immortal."

Russia uses locals for capturing the airport. At the same time this is a convenient way of cleansing the occupied territory from those ireliable known as “pro-Russian separatists”,  posing a problem for Moscow. Local ‘separatists” started realizing that ­­they were blinded by Russian propaganda  and began going out of control, transforming from Moscow’s  “useful idiots” to a potential threat. Civic dissidents to new regime also are forcibly conscripted to the “separatists” army, controlled by the Russian Special Forces and sacrificed during the attacks.

 "Dead souls" election technology

The passports of sacrificed locals are available to use in upcoming local elections, guaranteeing to Moscow the "right choice". Their documents can legitimize the Russian Special Forces' presence in the region, who assure the management of the occupied territory accordingly to instructions from Moscow. The pretended "heads" of the Donetsk and Lugansk  "people's republics” in fact are just "talking heads", allowed to articulate the decisions, made by the Kremlin.

Russian Special Forces occupy apartments and houses both of the “dead souls” and of the refugees fled to Russia scared by Russian propaganda. Invented by Russians “Ukrainian fascists” became the main "virtual weapon" of Moscow's hybrid war. Russian Migration Service provides Special forces with the necessary information obtained from the passport confiscated in Russia from refugees. The refugees are then sent without documents to the Russian Far East. Thus Moscow resolves another problem - dilutes local ethnic population with Ukrainian refugies.

In essence, the Kremlin performs massive replacement of the local male population of the occupied region with the mercenaries from the different Russian regions, including Chechnya and other unreliable ethnic republics in such way defusing their separatist potential. The videos from the occupied zone show that the volleys of heavy weapons directed to Donetsk airport are ordered with the exclamations "Allah Akbar!"

Using the Chechens and other ethnic groups abroad allows defusing pressure in potentially rebellious Russian regions, redirecting potential of the most active male population to Russia’s terrorist operations and new territorial conquests abroad.

Technology of centralized control over occupied territory

Moscow uses a centralized scheme of colonial rule over the occupied regions providing full control of the region. This allows Russian Special Forces
under the guise of "Ukrainian  separatists' to continue destroying the region and terrorizing the local population into obedience.

Putin does not want to annex these territories or recognize their independence. In case of recognition or annexation, Putin should pay for reconstruction of the intentionally destroyed region. That would be devastating for Russian economy and would lead to defeat. 

Putin’s strategy intends destruction of Ukraine by permanent devastation of the controlled region. Under the guise of "humanitarian convoys”, Russian continues saturating the region with the heavy armament. The same “humanitarian convoys” return to Russia with the equipment of the strategic Ukrainian enterprises, leaving the population of the occupied Ukrainian territories without means of living.

Making West to pay for Russia’s military bases 

Putin seeks from Poroshenko a de facto recognition of Russia's control over the occupied territories, turning them into a de facto Russian military base, while maintaining visibility of Ukraine’s sovereignty over the territory. 

Thus Kremlin would ensure the centralized management of the region while all the costs for infrastructure rehabilitation and maintenance of viability of the region are imposed on Ukraine. In this way, Russia plans to continue its war of attrition against both Ukraine and the West, which promised helping Ukraine with reconstruction of devastated region.

By crea­­­­­ting a terrorist enclave on the enemy’s territory Putin can maintain permanent "nonlinear war" against Ukraine by creating chaos throughout the country, and at the same time demand from the international community recognition of his “peacekeeping role" in resolving the "Ukrainian crisis" and consequent lifting of the sanctions. 

The artificially created terrorist enclave can be used as a springboard for Russia’s new territorial conquests.

Kremlin’s approach: between conventional and asymmetrical war

In asymmetric warfare, the main bulk of military force is used mostly for demonstrative assaults. The purpose of the assaults are  to intimidate and coerce the enemy into making concessions that are needed by Putin. However, this does not mean that at some point the asymmetrical war is not replaced with a traditional war. The announcement made in early October on withdrawal of the troops, which the Russian propaganda presented as Russia's desire for peace, was just a tactical move. 

Wedging war during the winter is more expensive on the one hand. On the other hand, Putin hopes during the winter to get rid off the Western sanctions. He also intends to create "Ukraine fatigue" in the West by provoking the chaos in Ukraine, orchestrated by the Russian Special forces.

If Russia’s new colonial scheme is successful in Ukraine, the same schemes can be implemented in other places. In fact, this operation illustrates the basic principle of the Russian asymmetric war – obtaining high results at the lowest cost by using enemy’s resources in its favor.

Putin believes that the strategy and tactics of the low-cost asymmetrical war should let him gradually take control not only over Ukraine, but also over the countries of the European Union what finally should destroy it. In Putin's view the EU is the main enemy of his “Eurasian empire from Lisbon to Vladivostok” project. Anti-American rhetoric is meant to divide the EU from the US and in such way deprive Europe of military protection.

 Legitimation of occupied territories 

Thus, announced earlier in October withdrawal of the Russian troops from Ukraine, presented by Russian propaganda as Moscow's desire for peace, is just a tactical move. Winter war is more expensive. Until the spring Putin hopes getting rid of the western sanctions and to cause Ukraine fatigue due to chaos, intentionally caused by the Russian Special forces.

According to Russian estimates, the West should realize that the restoration of occupied territory is impossible because of constant terrorist attacks and Ukraine is doomed to a deep crisis because of the separatists "black hole" on the occupied territory. The next step should be the West rejecting Ukraine in favor of Russian control over it.

Legitimization of the occupied by Russia territory as a separate entity should trigger the process of re-Balkanization of Europe - the process in which Russia is actively involved. For long time Russia has supported financially and ideologically the separatist parties inside the EU, thus building focal points for future destabilization. After achieving the stage of chaos  Russia plans to start building from remains its own version of Europe instead of the EU.

An alternative to the Russian creeping colonization is recognition of Russia’s responsibility for the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory and creation of powerful defense line between Russia (including the temporarily occupied territories) and Ukraine itself, what should lead to isolation and reverse of Russian aggression in Ukraine as described in my previous article

Reflexive control technology

To achieve control over occupied territories Putin counts on the Western stereotypical perception of the war as an internal "Ukrainian conflict." Russian propaganda regularly imposes this formula either by Russian controlled news channels or under the guise of analytical articles of the Western experts, whose only input often is stylistic editing and signing the Kremlin written articles. Abundantly funded and geting more sophisticated by day, Russian propaganda works hard to impose on the West Putin’s decisions, damaging the West and benefiting Russia.

 In Putin’s opinion, the West is especially vulnerable in spontaneous decision-making. This regularly occurs when Russian suggestive propaganda is combined with the physical intimidation such as regular infraction of EU country’s space by Russian military planes, submarines or declarations on potential nuclear arms use.

Exploiting Western uncritical and stereotypical thinking first allows Russia to capture new territories by subversive means and then to call the West for "diplomatic solution", "peaceful settlement", “dialog” and "new reset" – all the “magical words”, evoking involuntary approval of the West.

For the Western politicians these words are not an empty sound, but the basis of coexistence in the world.  Thus, using the conditioned reflexes of the Western leaders Putin gets a convenient perpetual scheme for legitimizing of new territorial seizures, which he can apply elsewhere, including in Europe.

If the Western leaders do not want to play along with the Putin's scheme for building a Eurasian empire from Lisbon to Vladivostok – they should learn to consciously understand Putin’s “magic formulas”. These formulas must not be automatically accepted in hope for peace, stability and high political ratings. The result would be the opposite - spreading of unfettered “Eurasian fascism” over the continent. 

The conscious reaction is a reply, based on principles and values that constitute a real soft power, against which Putin's 'soft force' is powerless. To combat Putin's "soft force" the West must learn to think out of the box and to get rid of prevailing stereotypes. The result of the psychological warfare, which Putin leads against the West depends on this.

Mass media as Russia's main weapon in asymmetric war against the West

Russian occupation of Ukraine would have been impossible without indoctrination of population in both Russia and Eastern Ukraine. This is the main element of Russian asymmetrical war, which makes peoples of the attacked countries fight 
in Russia's favor against their own countries and their own interests.

Russia wages the asymmetric war not only against Ukraine but also against the West. It has started several years before the occupation of Ukraine. This explains Putin’s confidence on obtaining full support of the West. The war against the West presumes gradual seizing control over the Western media, expert and public opinion, supporting of the dead-end anti-European parties and protest movements to the total control of the country.

Western leaders underestimate this kind of threat due to democratic traditions and lack of awareness that their countries are under attack. Methodically capturing control of the Western media, Putin deliberately creates a conflict between the mass audience of the Western countries and the Western leaders. 

The easy targets for Russian control usually are state-financed media organizations, especially those including  Russian-language services, making them vulnerable to Moscow’s influence. Among them, there are Euronews – the most popular news channel in Europe, BBC, DW, and other public broadcasters. Putin also expands West Russia’s propaganda channel RT (Russia Today) and other less obvious instruments.

By controlling Western public and expert opinion, Putin obtains control over the political situation in the European countries. He intentionally creates unfair competition between acting moderate politicians who resist his aggression. This is accomplished by Putin support of the ultra-left and ultra-right who are united by their hatred of the EU.

 Control over the public opinion allows deepening contradictions, triggering conflicts, shaping its "fifth column", which he can use at a right moment at his own discretion. 

Of course, Russia is using many other technologies and active measures to create on the enemy’s territory a loyal to Russia underground. However, the news channels are crucial for creating generally “correct” mental background, carefully constructed in the Kremlin psychological laboratories.

The situation is critical. If the West does not take measures necessary to protect its own citizens from the Russian indoctrination, a little sooner or later Putin will bring to power in the EU countries left and right fringe, which, despite the ideological contradictions, merges in supporting authoritarian view of the world and willingness to submit to Russia’s influence. The occupied Donbas, where all these technologies have been applied, shows what the result they can produce in practice.

November 19, 2014

Stalin: “Our finger of revolution has been stuck into China”

From the article by: Vladimir Voronov
plakat33 212x300 Stalins “Little Green Men”After Crimea was annexed and the war in the Donbas unleashed, a lot has been said about the Kremlin’s so-called “hybrid war.” A war that, according to the theoreticians, combines elements of “regular” military actions with reconnaissance and subversive operations carried out by subdivisions combined with all-out information and cyber war. The same theoreticians and analysts claim that this is a completely new form of warfare.
However, there is nothing new in “hybrid warfare.” The strategy was practiced long before Putin’s “little green men” appeared in Crimea or in the Donbas. Although such designation as hybrid warfare did not exist, in secret documents, this kind of strategy was called “active reconnaissance.”  It was a partisan activity staged as an insurgency and later the people’s liberation war or a revolution of national independence.

 “It will be generally well understood that we are against war with China; the Red Army is merely guarding our borders and has no intention of crossing into Chinese territory, but if within Manchuria a revolution is found to be brewing, then everything will be fully explicable.” Josef Stalin  

On October 7, 1929, Stalin, who had come to Sochi for his well-deserved multi-month vacation, sent a message to his stand-in in Moscow, Molotov (then a member of the Politburo and the Secretary of the Central Committee of the All-Union Communist Party (Bolshevik):  
China will be problematic for us. It seems to me it is time for us to switch to organizing a movement for revolution in Manchuria. Sending special operations groups into Manchuria to execute special missions intermittently is basically a good idea but that’s not what we need. Now is the time to escalate our strategy. We should organize two regiments of brigades consisting mainly of Chinese men, supply them with everything that is required (artillery, machine guns, etc.) place Chinese men at the head of the brigades and send them off to Manchuria with an assignment: to foment a rebellion within the Manchurian army, befriend and take under our wing reliable soldiers from those armies (dismissing the army itself after getting rid of the commanding officers), return to the division, occupy Harbin and, upon gaining power, pronounce Zhang Zuolin [son of Chairman Zhang Tzolin, ruler of Manchuria in the years 1928-1931 – author’s note] deposed, and finally establish revolutionary control (conduct pogroms on the landowners, win over the Christians, set up a command regime in cities, towns and villages, etc.).That is absolutely necessary. We can, and I think, should do it. This is not in violation of any “international laws.” Everyone will understand that we are against war with China, the Red Army is merely guarding our borders and has no intention of crossing over into Chinese territory but in the event that a revolution is brewing in Manchuria it will be seen as a natural progression considering what life was like under Zhang Zuolin’s regime. Think about it. This is important.” (J.V Stalin’s Letters to V.M. Molotov. 1925-1936. Collection of Documents. M., Rossiya Molodaya, 1995, pp. 167-168.)

October 17, 2014

Российские технологии построения Евразийской империи от Владивостока до Лиссабона

Irina SEVERIN | | In English

Технология "малой войны" за счет противника

Последние месяцы  не прекращаются атаки на Донецкий аэропорт, который стал символом украинского сопротивления российской оккупации. Кроме прицельных атак из тяжелого вооружения, защитники аэропорта отмечают группы странно одетых и, по всей видимости, накачанных наркотиками людей, которые переодически наступают на них с таким видом " будто они бессмертны".  

Судя по всему, атаки на аэропорт - это удобный способ зачистки оккупированной территории от тех, кого принято называть повстанцами. Они сделали свое дело и больше не нужны российской стороне, которая де факто оккупировала регион и держит его под контролем. Многие из повстанцев начали понимать, что их использовали в чужих интересах и начали выходить из под контроля, превращаясь из сообщников в потенциальную угрозу. Часть -  это гражданские, принудительно мобилизованные в армию  ДНР.  Руководит процессом российский спецназ. Роль заградительных отрядов выпоняют преимущественно чеченцы. 

 В результате достигается сразу несколько целей. Решаются боевые задачи за счет сил самого противника - украинских граждан. Ликвидируются неблагонадежные, которые со временем могли бы стать проблемой.  После зачистки остаются их паспорта, которые  на  предстоящих выборах гарантировано сделают правильный выбор Также их документы могут стать средством легитимации в регионе  российского спецслужб. Именно они в соответствии с указаниями из Центра осуществляет реальное управление регионом. "Говорящим головам" в лице глав  ДНР и ЛНР позволено озвучивать нужные слова, написанные в Кремле. 

September 30, 2014

Peace Plan for isolation and reverse of Russian aggression in Ukraine

By Irina Severin | Original in Russian published on 8 September 2014

"Russia sometimes wins wars, but always loses peace"

Recognizing reality as a precondition for the right solution

To stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, to preserve its independence and re-establish territorial integrity, it is important to assess soberly the real situation, to clear it from the myths, imposed by Russian propaganda, in order not to have to play along involuntarily with the scenario, imposed by Russia.  

First, Ukraine should admit defeat in the battle with Russia’s regular armed forces for control of the part of the Ukrainian territory at the east of Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to take two basic steps: to recognize de facto Russia as a belligerent side in the war and to recognize the territory, controlled by Russia in the existing today boundaries as the territory, temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation.

Kremlin special military "Humanitarian" Trojan horse" operation as a breaking point

Ukraine failed to defend its territorial integrity in the result of the Kremlin special military "Humanitarian" Trojan horse" operation. Under the guise of “humanitarian convoy”, Russia managed to carry out massive supplies of the arms and the units of the Russian regular army to the eastern regions of Ukraine.

From this point on the east of the country, Ukraine fought not against Russia’s mercenaries and “the Russian soldiers in vacation”, but against the Russian regular troops.  “Humanitarian special operation" has fundamentally changed the balance of power in favor of Russia and Russia’s forces in the Donbas. Russia continues to deny their presence there as it did first about the Crimea.  At the same time, the advance of the Russian troops in Ukraine during the last days is nobody’s secret.

For the effectiveness of the Peace plan, not only Ukraine but also the entire international community should recognize the fact of Russia’s occupation of the part of Ukraine. The West should continue increasing pressure over the Russian Federation by tightening sanctions to increase the price of the Russian military actions in Ukraine.

Fortified shield for arresting Russian aggression in Ukraine

By recognizing the part of the country as a territory, temporarily occupied by Russia and stopping the Anti-terrorist operation in the Donbas region Ukraine will open to the West the possibility to grant Ukraine defensive weapons. In such a case, the supply of the arms to Ukraine will play the role of deterrent of bloodshed, not lead to its escalation as the West fears.  Ukraine will not use the weapons for regaining control over already occupied by Russia territory, but for preventing Russia’s advance into new territory.

The key role in the Peace plan belongs to the West, which should provide weapons, enough to deter the aggression.  Combined with the sanctions raising the price of occupation this will give the opportunity to isolate and stop Russian aggression in Ukraine. 

However, this plan will be effective only in the case of the well-coordinated efforts of the entire international community.  In such case over time, the international pressure will make Russia itself to abandon the occupied territories and start looking inward resolving its own internal problems, not continuing occupation of new territories – the trend we observe today.

Moreover, in such case, Moscow would have to ensure the viability of the occupied territories, consistently and deliberately destroyed by Russian paramilitary and regular troops, what will become the unsupportable burden for the struggling with own economic problems country. This will lead to Russia’s peaceful surrender and reverse to the pre-Crimean status quo. The history shows that Russia sometimes wins wars but always loses the pe­ace.

The role of International Organisations

The residents of the temporarily occupied territories should get the opportunity to move to the territory, controlled by Ukraine to prevent the repressions against the local population by the Russian invaders that take place in the region now.

This Peace Plan will save lives both of the Ukrainians, defending their country and people, and the Russians, either forced to perform the criminal orders of their higher-ups or falling under the spell of the Kremlin’s criminal propaganda, intentionally inciting hatred of the Russians toward the Ukrainians. The international community should also recognize the criminal character of the Russian propaganda and its major role in the Russian war against Ukraine.

The international organizations should continue monitoring the situation in the region. The only OSCE's efforts could be not enough, as the organization is experiencing a strong influence on its activities of the country-aggressor. Russia could easily affect either the organization’s decision-making process or its funding or both.

Correcting psychological deviations

When the economic pressure will give the results, Russia will be more prone to look for a diplomatic solution.  Russia’s clear peaceful defeat is the only thing that can stop Putin’s further aggression against Ukraine and other states.  The reason for spreading Russian aggression is primarily psychological: Putin’s confidence in his invincibility.
This “Winner syndrome” pushes him and the nation to new territorial conquests. Russia needs an obvious defeat to overcome this syndrome. This will give the opportunity to Russia to become a normal country that respects international laws and engage in its own development, rather than entertaining its imperial drive by occupying new territories.

Containing Russian corruption

Released from a war of attrition, led by Russia against Ukraine (and by default against the EU), Kiev will get an opportunity to undertake the necessary reforms and boost its economy. This approach would protect Ukraine from Russia’s corrupting influence.  The schemes, corrupting Ukrainian politicians, were Moscow’s main weapon, keeping Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence during all years of Ukraine's independence.
Economic recovery and integration with the West will make Ukraine a natural magnet for the territories temporarily occupied by Russia, while Russia will not be able to offer anything to them. The example of Crimea only proves this.

Russia’s “take over” technology

It is important to understand that the so-called self-proclaimed republics "Lugansk Popular Republic" and "Donetsk Popular Republic" - are anything but Russia’s false flag special operations, designed to occupy Ukrainian territory. If these projects are successful, Russia will continue to use them throughout the world - be this Spanish Catalonia or the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China.

Understanding the mechanism of the Russian technology of territorial conquests must unite all countries for coordinated action to stop Russian military aggression in its present borders and gradual start returning the situation to its original settings and reestablishment of the International law.

Imposed by Russia federalization is not a solution

An alternative to the peaceful isolation and containment of Russian military aggression is imposed by Russia federalization of Ukraine with the incorporation of controlled by Russia territory. This would mean a "shared sovereignty" with Russia over Ukraine, gradual isolation from the West and drawing it in Russia's sphere of influence by involving Ukrainian elites in common corrupt projects.

The most negative for Ukraine Russian scenario envisages the transformation of Ukraine from a potentially strong ally of the West into its fervent opponent. There are no halftones in Russian foreign policy.  Russia has strong brainwashing and social engineering technologies necessary for such transformation. 

This scenario is inevitable in case of the policy of appeasement of Russia and accepting that there is no Russia’s war against Ukraine, just an “internal Ukrainian conflict”. Imposing this artificially created scheme on international community by means of all available propaganda and diplomatic tools is Russia’s main battleground these days.  In such way, Russia wants to maintain its full control over the part of Ukrainian territory while Ukraine and its donors should pay for reconstruction of the region intentionally ruined by the Russian troops. Claiming the role of “pacificator” in the settlement of “internal Ukrainian conflict”, Russia will demand lifting Western sanctions and reintegration into the world on its own conditions.     

Russia’s “Ukrainian conflict” strategy

Simultaneously Russia will continue its war of attrition against Ukraine pretending that it does not control terrorist actions of alleged “separatists” (in reality Russia’s mercenaries and Russian troops). In such way, Russia will continue to spread its terror not only in Donbass, but also over the rest of Ukraine and preparing for new military actions by sending “humanitarian convoys” with armament and troops to Donbass.

 In fact, Russia suggests a kind of shared sovereignty with Ukraine over the occupied territory, which Moscow will gradually expand over the rest of Ukraine by spreading terror and corrupting national and local authorities until converting Ukraine into a failed state, unable to exist without reunification with Russia.

Strengthened by Ukraine and encouraged by successful special take over operations, Russia would become an insurmountable threat for both Europe and the whole world. For now, the world has a choice.

Predetermined consequences of this scenario, designed in Russia’s “asymmetric war” laboratories, explain why the clean break and isolation of Russian aggression is the only way to preserve Ukrainian independence and gradually reverse the situation back to normal.  This will be a well-deserved lesson for Russia: all destructive elements intentionally imposed on Ukraine like calculatedly induced misery and terror, designed to destroy Ukraine, will start to work against Russia. Moscow should pay this price, not Ukraine or the West.

Russia’s defeat as longer-term gain

If Ukraine manages to maintain its independence and build an attractive state model for its citizens’, it will become a positive example for Russia. This will help Russia also eventually to integrate into the international community based on modern principles and values; not continue imposing on world its medieval feudal model, operating in Russia today and actively impose by Moscow on Europe via its ultra-right and ultra-left allies in the European Union.

The Peace plan on arresting and reverse Russian aggression, based on the real vision of the situation and not on a fantasy, spread by Russian propaganda around the world, will preserve the fundamental international rules instead of adopting the actions of the aggressor that put the world on the brink of disaster. The Peace plan also requires a review of the role of Russia as a country-aggressor in the international organizations, especially in the UN Security Council.

The Peace plan requires a deep understanding and coordinated actions by all members of the international community in favor of peace and prosperity. An alternative to this plan is a state of permanent chaos, controlled from Moscow, the signs of which we observe today.

September 9, 2014

СМИ: Китай стягивает войска к границе с Россией / Новый Регион

СМИ: Китай стягивает войска к границе с Россией / Новый Регион

 9 Сентября 2014, 12:11 19601 10
Китай готовится к войне или просто укрепляет границу?
ФСБ РФ  ситуацию официально не комментирует
Китай готовится к войне или просто укрепляет границу?
Китай готовится к войне или просто укрепляет границу?

США склоняют Китай ввести санкции против России

Киев, Сентябрь 09 (Новый Регион, Анатолий Васильев) – В приграничном
китайском городе Маятун (Majiatun) зафиксировано аномально большое
скопление военных и техники. Официально ФСБ России ситуацию не
комментирует, но источники информацию подтверждают.

Как пишут «Экономические известия», речь идет о 12-15 тысячах
военнослужащих и целых колоннах тяжелой техники и артиллерии, подтянутых
к российской границе. «Наши ФСБшники пытаются скрыть этот напряженный
момент, однако местные СМИ уже начали подавать эту информацию», – заявил

По его словам, цель пребывания подразделений китайской армии на границе
неясна, «однако попахивает чем-то плохим».
© HP2

September 8, 2014

Мирный план купирования российской агрессии в Украине

Ирина Северин  |  UAObserver |  English version                                                                                                  

Для прекращения кровопролития в Украине и сохранения ее независимости важно прежде всего трезво оценить сложившуюся ситуацию, очистить ее от мифов, навязываемых российской пропагандой,  чтобы не пришлось невольно подыгрывать России в ее сценариях. 

Прежде всего Украина должна признать временное поражение в противостоянии  с российской армией за контроль над частью украинских территорий на востоке Украины. Для этого нужно де факто признать Россию воюющей стороной в конфликте, а территорию, контролируемую Россией в существующих сегодня границах - территорией, временно оккупированной Российской федерацией.

Украина временно утратила контроль над частью территорий в результате предпринятой Кремлем военной спецоперации «гуманитарный конвой'. Под видом "гуманитарного конвоя" Россия сумела осуществить массированные поставки российского вооружения и военных подразделений в восточные регионы Украины.

С этого момента на востоке страны против Украины воевали не разрозненные отряды российских наемников из числа профессиональных «военных в отпуске», а регулярные российские войска. «Гуманитарная спецоперация» кардинально изменила соотношение сил в пользу России и российских войск на Донбассе. 

Россия продолжает отрицать их присутствие в Украине также, как это было  на начальном этапе  в Крыму. Вместе с тем передвижение российских войск в последние дни уже носит открытый характер.

Международное сообщество также должно признать факт временной российской оккупации и продолжить давление на Российскую федерацию путем ужесточения санкций вплоть до добровольного освобождения Россией оккупированных украинских территорий - Крыма и Донбасса.

Признание части страны временно оккупированной территорией и отказ от боевых действий для их возвращение открывает перед Западом возможность предоставления Украине оборонительного вооружения. 

В таком случае именно поставки оборонительного вооружения Украине станут фактором сдерживания кровопролития,  а не эскалации военных действий как того опасается Запад.  Вооружение будет использовано не для освобождения оккупированной территории, а для сдерживания российского наступления на новые территории.

 Жители временно оккупированных территорий должны получить возможность перемещения на территорию, контролируемую Украиной для исключения пыток и издевательств со стороны оккупантов, происходящих там сегодня.

Эти действия дадут Украине возможность остановить российскую агрессию. Однако это возможно лишь в сочетании с санкциями Запада, которые в свою очередь продолжат выполнять функцию сдерживания российской агрессии через экономические механизмы, повышая цену ведения потенциальных военных действий. 

Со временем это побудит Россию саму отказаться от оккупированных территорий и заняться внутренними делами, а не продолжать оккупировать все новые территории, на что она запрограммирована сегодня.

Это спасет жизни украинцев, защищающих свою страну и своих сограждан, и жизни россиян, которые вынуждены исполнять преступные приказы высшего российского руководства.  

Необходимо предпринять особые меры для нейтрализации российского психологического оружия - преступной пропаганды, намеренно разжигающей ненависть россиян против украинцев. 

Ключевая роль в этом мирном плане отводится Западу, который должен предоставить вооружение, достаточное для сдерживания агрессии. Для мониторинга ситуации должны быть задействованы международные организации. 

 Усилий ОБСЕ недостаточно, так как организация испытывает сильное влияние на свои внутренние дела страны-агрессора. Россия может легко заблокировать как принятие любого решения, так и финансирование самой организации.

При соблюдении перечисленных  условий вероятность дростижения победы мирным  путем предопределена. Дополнительные расходы Москвы для обеспечения жизнедеятельности оккупированных территорий в сочетании с санкциями неизбежно приведут Россию  к осознанию необходимости возврата захваченных территорий. Россия иногда выигрывает войны, но всегда проигрыват мир. 

При сохранении жесткого экономического давления на Россию решение проблемы может быть достигнута в ходе дипломатических переговоров.  Осознание мирного поражения Россией -  единственное, что может остановить дальнейшую агрессию Путина против других государств. 

Причины российской агрессии носят прежде всего психологический характер. Путин настолько поверил в свою непобедимость, что у него выработался "синдром победителя", который толкает его  на новые агрессии и  территориальные захваты. 

Осмысленное поражение России необходимо для того, чтобы преодолеть этот синдром победителя  на уровне российской ментальности. Это позволит России со временем стать нормальной страной, уважающей международное право и побудит ее заниматься собственным развитием, а не оккупацией все новых территорий.

В то же время это даст возможность Украине, свободной от истощающих ее военных действий, провести необходимые реформы и поднять экономику. Этот подход оградит Украину от коррумпирующего влияния России, которая на протяжении всех лет независимости Украины удерживала ее в сфере своего влияния преимущественно за счет коррупционных схем.  

В результате подъема экономики и интеграции с Западом Украина станет естественным магнитом для территорий, временно оккупированных Россией, в  то время как сама Россия не в состоянии им что-либо предложить.

Важно понимать, что так называемые «ЛНР» и «ДНР» – это российские спецоперации под фальшивыми флагами "самопровозглашенных республик", разработанные и внедренные для оккупации части территории Украины. 

Если эти проекты окажутся успешными, то Россия продолжит их использование по всему миру – будь то европейская Каталония или Синьцзян-Уйгурский автономный район в Китае. 

Понимание механизма действия российской технологии территориальных захватов должно сплотить все страны мира для скоординированных действий по купированию российской агрессии в ее сегодняшних границах и постепенного возвращения ситуации к ее исходным параметрам.

Альтернативой плану мирного купирования российской агрессии может стать российский сценарий по втягиванию Украины в  коррупционные схемы и постепенная изоляция от Запада за счет навязанного извне замороженного конфликта.  

Наиболее негативный и вместе с тем наиболее реалистичный российский сценарий предусматривает превращение Украины с ее мощным потенциалом из союзника Запада в его противника. 

Укрепившись за счет Украины и не вынеся никаких уроков из сложившейся ситуации Россия станет непреодолимой угрозой как для соседей, так и для Европы и мира в целом. Пока у Запада есть выбор.

В случае, если Украина сохранит свою независимость и построит привлекательную для своих граждан государственную модель Украина станет позитивным примером для самой России. Это поможет России со временем также интегрироваться в мировое сообщество на основе современных принципов и ценностей.  Москва пекратит навязывать через своих ультралевых и ультраправых союзников в разных странах  ту средневековую феодальную модель, которая  сегодня действует в России.

Мирный план купирования российской агрессии, основывающийся на реальном видении ситуации, а не на фантазиях, внедряемых российской пропагандой по всему миру, позволит сохранить основополагающие международные правила, а не подстраиваться под действия агрессора, ставя мир на грань катастрофы.  Мирный план также требует пересмотра  роли России в международных организациях как страны-агрессорах.  

В целом мирный план требует глубокого осмысления и скоординированных действий всех членов международного сообщества во благо мира и стабильности. Альтернатива этому плану - управляемый из Москвы хаос, который мы наблюдаем сегодня.

August 28, 2014

Paul Goble: Putin Can Deny But No Longer Conceal He’s Invaded Ukraine

Window on Eurasia: Putin Can Deny But No Longer Conceal He’s Invaded Ukraine

 By Paul Goble | Staunton | August 28
Vladimir Putin can continue to lie and deny that Russian forces have invaded Ukraine, but he can no longer conceal that from Russians, Ukrainians or the West, a reality that means there is no way out except admitting defeat or acknowledging that he has invaded, neither of which Putin will do, or continuing on in the hopes he’ll get away with.  

it.According to Aleksey Gorbachev, the political observer of “Nezavisimaya gazeta,” “by his actions, the Kremlin has driven itself into the position of a ‘Zugswang,’” a term used in chess to refer to a situation a player faces “when any further step will only complicate [his] situation” further (

 “It is obvious that without massive military support from Russia, the militants cannot oppose for long the Ukrainian forces,” the commentator says, and consequently Moscow must provide it because “the defeat of the militants will be viewed as a defeat for the Kremlin.” But doing so will alienate Russians who don’t want to invade Ukraine and the West as well.

Polls show few Russians want to send the Russian army into Ukraine, and fewer still are going to want to as casualties from the invasion so mount among draftees and cannot be concealed from the population. And the West too, despite its reluctance to describe Putin’s actions as an invasion and thus his statements about it as lies, will also soon have little choice.

As the “Nezavisimaya gazeta” writer puts it, Putin may be able to win time by continuing to say things that are demonstrably false as he did in Minsk, but for him and for others, time is running out because what can no longer be concealed will ultimately have to be acknowledged if not by its authors than by others.

Moreover, he points out, Ukrainians know what is going on, and they are using the Internet to reach out to Russians to tell them what is happening and equally important what this means. In the words of Ukrainian poet Anastasiya Dmitruk, as a result of what has happened, “we will never be brothers neither by motherland nor by mothers.”
Western leaders have been less willing than Ukrainians or ordinary Russians to describe what Putin is doing accurately because if they do, they would have to acknowledge that the situation has changed and thus face demands that they respond. Putin probably hopes he can continue to intimidate them even as he is losing ground at home.

But as the world watches the Putin-directed Russian military invasion of Ukraine, these same leaders would do well to remember the words of Russian activist Aleksandr Genis earlier this month who pointed out that anyone who doesn’t condemn what Putin is doing shares responsibility with him (
 Now that the Kremlin leader has openly invaded Ukraine, that has become more true than ever before.

August 16, 2014

Sochi’s Lozhkin-Ivanov Pact

Today, Head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine Borys Lozhkin had a meeting with Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Sergei Ivanov in the city of Sochi.
In the course of the dialogue, the parties discussed a wide range of bilateral relations.

The parties agreed to hold a meeting in Normandy format at the level of Foreign Ministers of Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia in Berlin on August 17. The agenda and the range of issues that should be discussed at the meeting were also coordinated.

UAObserver commentary 

Head of  Administration of the President Poroshenko, Boris LOZHKIN held the separate talks with the head of the Administration of the President Putin, Sergei Ivanov. Results to be consolidated at a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia. Obviously,  format was imposed by Putin to avoid intractable to the Russians "Anglo-Saxons".

  The so-called "Normandy format" excludes from negotiations the European Union, which Putin also sees as one of the main enemies of Russia. The Normandy format excludes any influence of Poland and the Baltic countries, which, being on the front line with Russia, better than other countries of the West are aware of the threat posed by Putin’s regime.

Germany will be represented by a faithful putinite Frank-Walter Steinmeier, making part of the party of Gerhard Schroeder, who continues working for the Russian Gazprom. As latest developments how France's position is determined by desire to sell as many Mistrals to Russians as possible. Earlier, Putin promised to increase the order.

It is obvious that this format is not favorable for Ukraine, as it deprives it of support of the US, the UK and the European Union. Factually, Putin launches Dugin's project on the division of Europe and the marginalization of the United States.

Being businesspersons, both Poroshenko and Lozhkin rather are guided by business interests, agreed in the separate negotiations with Sergey Ivanov, not by the interests of Ukraine and its European and Euro-Atlantic future.

Such negotiation format is from the start flawed and unacceptable for both the Ukraine, US and the EU, since its purpose is to weaken the position of Ukraine and the West.
Moreover, through involvement in a separate deal Ukraine, France and Berlin, Putin is trying to split the West and launch a new format for potential World War III, with which he tries to scare Europe, using for this all controlled by him communications channels and mass media. 

Boris Lozhkin is not a random figure to negotiate with the head of Putin's administration. In 2012 he was decorated by the Russian Duma for promotion of the Russian world in Ukraine. Lozhkin was a founder and owner of tthe biggest (Russian language) media empire in Ukraine, which he gave up to Sergey Kurchenko, a would be Ukrainian oligarch (Kremlin project), who during last years concentrated in his hands the most important assets in gas and oil industry, in banking and media.

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August 15, 2014

Сочинский сговор Иванова-Ложкина

15.08.2014 19:47

Ирина Северин для UAObserver

Согласно сообщению пресс-службы главы украинского государств 15 августа в Сочи глава Администрации Президента Украины (АП)  Борис Ложкин провел сепаратные переговоры с  главой АП России  Сергеем Ивановым, итогом которых стало создание "нормандского формата" переговоров в составе России, Германии, Франции и Украины.  Результаты планируется закрепить на встрече 17 августа в Берлине глав МИДа этих стран.

Очевидно. что формат навязан Путиным для исключения несговорчивых "англосаксов". Также так называемый "Нормандский формат" исключает из переговорного процесса   Европейский союз, в котором Путин  видит одного из главных врагов России. Таким образом исключено какое-либо влияние  Польши и стран Балтии, которые, находясь на передовой линии российской агрессии и лучше других стран Запада осознают угрозу, исходящую от путинской России.  

Германию будет представлять верный путинец Франк-Вольтер  Штайнмайер, представляющий партию Герхарда Шредера, который продолжает  работать  на российский Газпром. Позиция Франции будет определяться ее заинтересованностью продать России как можно больше Мистралей.  Ранее Путин пообещал увеличить заказ. 

Украина  в условиях войны лишается поддержки США, Великобритании и Европейского союза. 

Этот переговорный формат изначально ущербен и неприемлем как для самой Украины, так и для Европейского союза и США.  Его цель - ослабить позиции и Украины, и Запада.  Через втягивание в сепаратную сделку Украины, Франции и Берлина, Путин  пытается расколоть Запад и запустить формат новой мировой войны, которой он через  контролируемые им каналы и средства массовой информации пугает Европу.  

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