November 13, 2016

Russia imposes "Transnistrization" scheme on Ukraine

By Irina Severin | UAObserver 

The victory of the pro-Moscow candidate Igor Dodon in the Presidential election in Moldova is not only the EU's loss of the popularity contest to Russia but a sign of a complete failure of the EU policy in the region.

The EU loses its position despite the fact that it not only puts massive amounts of the aid to the country but pays a significant part of its budget. However, the public either does not know about this or believes that this is a bribing of Moldovan authorities by the EU bureaucrats as Russian propaganda sells this.
During the last decade, Moscow runs a relentless disinformation campaign in Moldova, but there are no signs of informing the public about EU assistance neither by the EU nor by the Moldovan authorities.
Comes to the ridiculous - the money paid by the EU for years for the construction and renovation of kindergartens, hospitals, and schools in Transnistria (not even in Moldova!) are attributed to Moscow and seen as Russian investment in the development of the estranged region. 

Both the population in Transnistria and in Moldova are confident that this is Moscow's support for Transnistria as this is a region, officially recognized as the territory occupied by Russia and de facto is Russia's military outpost in this part of Europe. 

That is why Moldovans want "more of Moscow" in Moldova and vote for Dodon, who promised to bring more of Russia's influence and Russian help.

Furthermore, having such success in Moldova and Transnistria Moscow tries to impose a similar model to the occupied territories in Ukraine. The logic is simple - if this irrational scheme works for Transnistria in Moldova, why not to impose the same scheme on Ukraine?
The "Transnistrian scheme" from the start was a model, which Moscow conceived as the basis for the Moscow's plan for Donbass. In fact, the Donbass military campaign is an artificial reconstruction of the Transnistrian model for Ukraine. 

The Transnistrian model is exactly what provides the Minsk agreement - legalization of the Russian military base in Ukraine, assuring its funding by the Western donors with gradual "Transnistrisation" of the whole Ukraine as this happened in Moldova.

October 21, 2016

"Minsk-3" and psychological arsenal of Kremlin

 By Irina Severin | UAObserver 

The October talks in the Normandy format in Berlin, which have already was dubbed the Minsk-3, and the events around them showed the Kremlin’s psychological arsenal, which it uses in the fight against the West.

Arsenal is very effective, judging by the results of the negotiations. Putin managed to convince European partners that the elections should be held before the withdrawal of Russian troops and weapons from Ukraine and until Ukrainian control over the border was restored, which, as Putin promised (everyone knows the price of his promises, but they believed him) will be transferred to Ukraine at the second day after the elections.

As the correspondent of Kommersant Kolesnikov reported from the event, having access to the body of, if not Putin, then Surkov, Merkel several times set aside obstinate Poroshenko and, after talking with her, he was agreeing to everything. As the result, Putin managed to put the squeeze on Poroshenko. In exchange, Putin agreed for the introduction of the military mission of OSCE. It seems, Putin intends to expand the mission at the expense of the Russian military, who already control the OSCE Mission of Observers and are seen in the transfer of intelligence information to the Russian occupation army (in its hybrid version).

On the other hand, any decision which Putin agrees for can be blocked by the heads of so-called DNR and LNR, appointed and lead by Moscow but pretending to be independent if Putin doesn't want to implement an agreement. In fact, these pretended republics are Putin's military outposts, whose pretended independence from Russia assures to Putin plausible deniability in case of their military aggression or refusal to accept OSCE military mission.  

The same trick for decades Russia uses in Moldova, where totally dependent on Russia Transnistria, when necessary to Moscow, pretends to have a right to take independent decisions. The difference between Transnistria and Donetsk region is the fact that in Transnistria is based Russian Army division, but in so-called DNR and LNR - a hybrid Russian Army known as ChVK Wagner what gives to Putin an additional pretext for plausible deniability in case of accusation on military crimes committed by the Russian military in the region. 

 It is curious that at the suggestion of Russian propaganda, these hybrid divisions - the GhVK Wagner - are called "separatists".

It was noticeable that Merkel was in a hurry to close the issue with Ukraine, satisfying Putin’s demands in order to move quickly to the issue of Syria. In essence, during the talks, Ukraine will exchange Ukraine for Putin’s promises on Syria, which have long been feared.

Although it is clear that Putin is not going to fulfill the promise. Moreover, the more effectively blackmail works with the resumption of the genocide in Syria, the more willing Putin will resort to it.

Putin managed to soften the claims of Merkel and Hollande to destroy Aleppo civilians (beat Merkel’s trump card) with a simple focus — the day before the Russian propaganda machine launched a misinformation that the Belgian planes allegedly killed civilians. 

It is clear to everyone that this is not true, but the human brain is working in such a way that even if at the level of rational level it understands that this is not true, the colorful pictures artificially created by the propaganda put pressure on the emotional sphere and inevitably cause a feeling of guilt.

The emotional sense of guilt, deliberately caused by Putin,  explains the EU’s inability to take action against Russia in Syria. Putin, unlike the West, knows perfectly well that the emotional sphere of the brain influences decision-making much more than the rational one, which is usually occupied with finding a rationale for a decision made on the basis of irrational emotions.

As the result, Putin won a clear victory over European leaders, even without resorting to arms. Unless, of course, of intentional intimidation of Europeans. The act of intimidation causes images in consciousness, comparable by a power of perception to the real act of violence, which determines what decision would be made.

Given the success of the use of psychological weapons, Putin will continue to use it and gain victories if all the psychological tricks he uses are not analyzed in detail and their effects are countered in advance. As for now, nothing dramatic has happened yet, as Minsk-3 is rather an attempt to postpone, but not to resolve the problem.

July 3, 2016

Гібридна війна продовжуєтся: нові російські загрози в Україні

Ірина Северин  |  UAObserver 


Українську політичну думку сьогодні сколихнула стаття впливового в Україні експерта Владіміра Горбуліна.  Автор закликає до асіметрічних дій проти Росії, але дивним чином ігнорує ісснуючи ситуацію в самій Україні, де вплив Росії не зменьшується, а збільшується, що становить основний напрямок російського удару по Украіїні.

Присутність в країні 7 російських банків з російським державним капіталом, забеспечує корупційні звязки з російським керівництвом та непередбачуваність українських політиків. Російські банки не тільки на підпали під санкції, але й отримують фінансову допомогу від НБУ під фальшивим приводом збереження стабільності банковського сектору, хоча вони вже давно могли би бути замінені на європейські банки.
Спекулятивна атака саме цих російських банків на гривню в 2014-му призвела до її драматичного знецінення в декілька разів. Тобто, російські банки в Україні - це бомби всередині держави, які кожної хвилини ( в час Х) можуть знову вибухнути та різко знецінити національну валюту - миттєво перетворити українців на жебраків та Україну в нефункціональну державу -"failed state". 
Дргуий виклик - це  переселення росіян  в Україну, що нагадує повзучу та неконтрольовану окупацію (під час війни). Навіть якщо вони і не є  інфільтрантами ФСБ, все одно несуть та навязують свої цінності, поступово змінюючи ідентичність українців. Антропотоки за визначенням російських військових є головною зброєю в гибридній війні. 
Відбувається поступовий процес заміни  українців, які гинуть на Донбасі, на активних росіян, які їдуть вчити  українців як жити, зі своєю войовничою зневагою до Заходу та мрією про велич об'єднаної Русі-України, тобто мрією поєднання Московії та України в єдину державу ( проти Заходу). 
Їдуть з купою грошей для підкупу всіх та вся, що робить їх ідеї привабливими. Грошові запаси поповнюються щедрими спонсорами з російських банків, отримуючих фнансову допомогу від НБУ. Таким чином можна констатувати, що останнім часом вплив Росії на Україну зсередени країни не тільки не зменьшився, а значно збільшився. 
Відбувається це через те, що верхівка влади має свій зиск в цьому процесі. Знецінена гривня означає, що об'єкти приватизації так само знецінюються - тобто штучно створена можливість зкупити Україну в п'ять разів дешевше в доларовому еквіваленті. 
До того ж на паритетних умовах з росіянами в обмін на частку  в російських нафтових, газових або будь-яких інших родовищах як плату за допуск росіян до української приватизації та фінансову допомогу їм за рахунок західних кредитів в умовах західних санкцій. 
Тобто приватизація не дасть ніякого імпульсу розвитку країни як це було б у разі західних інвестицій, які б принесли нові технології та пов'язали майбутнє України з Заходом. Навпаки, участь російських банків або їх підставних клиентів в приватизації зцементує дебілізуючий Україну тандем владних олігархів та російської держави вже навічно, що призведе до втрати незалежності. Саме в цьому напрямку зараз рухається ситуація під бадьорі, але фальшиві заклики до євроінтеграції.

(C) UAObserver

June 20, 2016

Putin's new diversion on the eve of NATO Summit

By Irina Severin | UAObserver 


As it became known, a new meeting of leaders of "Norman Quartet" (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, France), Vladimir Putin, Poroshenko, Merkel and Francois Hollande could take place in early July, before the NATO Summit in Warsaw. The German newspaper Stuttgarter Zeitung writes, citing a source in the government. According to the publication, the preparatory meeting with representatives of the four countries took place last week. "Ideally, the meeting of Heads of State Summit to be held July 8-9 North Atlantic alliance to reduce tensions," - said the source.
But what is behind this plan  of  "tension reduction" taking into account that the pressure  was carefully built  till now as the main leverage for a peaceful blocking  of Russian aggression?

In fact, this is another Putin's diversion, whose purpose is to divide western countries, destroy their ability to design common response to the Russian aggression and deprive Ukraine of the Western support during the NATO Summit. This is a second time when Moscow uses the same trick against both Ukraine and the West. 
At the NATO summit in 2014 due to surprise intervention of Putin Ukraine instead of the western consolidated support received the Minsk agreement, drawn by Surkov exclusively in Russian interests. Ukraine has lost a unique opportunity to mobilize Western support, that then was more than real. And Putin was well aware of this. 
This is the moment when the response to the developments in the Eastern Ukraine went in the wrong direction, what left demoralized NATO and Ukraine without the Western support. It was a pure propaganda, diplomatic and military victory for Putin. Instead of recognizing the Russian military aggression against Ukraine Moscow managed to impose its own "parallel reality',  where Russia is an peacemaker, and Ukraine is an "aggressor" against its own people, which has to make the unilateral concessions.  
Now the situation repeats itself - Putin masterfully tries to use Poroshenko and the West in Russia's favor in order to prevent consolidation of the   Western  position at the NATO Summit.
Consolidated NATO support (even symbolical) would allow Ukraine to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength and to get Russia to make concessions and to reverse its aggression. And this is exactly what Russia is trying to avoid.
By implementing this diversion Putin actually removes Ukraine issue from the NATO Summit agenda in exchange for air - some  false promises, which Russia  does not plan to fulfil. Thus Putin would manage to incline the balance of power in Russia's favor, to block NATO"s ability for any consolidated response and to demoralize Western defense capabilities. And all of this Putin plans to achieve without any shot. 

The role of Germany in this Putin's combination, introduced by Steinmeier - an ally of Gazprom's employee Schroeder, is secondary. This is the role of an instrument in the hands of the Russian president.