By Irina Severin | Expert on Russia and Russian Hybrid Warfare
Cold Blob as Roadblock on AMOC's Path
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| AccuWeather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-blob-in-north-atlantic-ocean-may-affect-weather-in-europe-eastern-us/378878 |
The main reason for the AMOC's 20 to 30 percent slowdown since the 50s is Russia's intentional destruction of Arctic ice, which naturally forms in Russian waters and then flows to Greenland, which should naturally shelter its ice sheet long before it even reaches Greenland.
However, due to the Russians' active Arctic ice melting, the natural flows of "young ice" from the nurseries in the Russian Kara and Laptev seas are replaced with warm meltwater flows.
Thus, instead of growing the Greenland ice sheet, warm water from Russia melts it, turning ice into fresh meltwater that creates a Cold Blob, a roadblock across the Gulf Stream and the AMOC path. Cold Blob not only blocks the warm stream's poleward movement but also dilutes its otherwise highly saline and extremely dense water with unsalted meltwater.
This prevents AMOC waters from sinking into the deep ocean and returning already cold water southward to complete its global thermostat role - cooling warm South and warming cold North, making both more livable. Instead, being blocked by the Cold Blob, the process stops.
War of Attrition on the US and Europe
The result of AMOC slowing would be cooling of Northern Europe and warming of Southern Europe. Despite global warming, a major slowdown can cause temperatures to plummet drastically, creating unpredictable springs and much harsher winters, the signs of which already occur, and much hotter summers.
An AMOC slowdown severely affects China and India by disrupting East Asian climate patterns, leading to major problems. The massive heat dome in India is one example that will only worsen as the slowdown of AMOC intensifies El Niño into a Super El Niño, with catastrophic consequences for Indians.
Putin's "Sovereign Climate Doctrine" in Action
In 2009, Russia adopted a Sovereign Climate Doctrine. The word "Sovereign" implies that any efforts Russia undertakes to improve its climate are legitimate if carried out within Russian waters, regardless of their damaging impact on other countries. As Russia controls de jure more than half of the Arctic and de facto the rest, Russia has already freed itself from any responsibility toward the countries it destroys.
Even if Russia already has many more "military-technical" means engaged in climate warfare, including the hydrosphere, geosphere, and the atmosphere, the Finnish climate researcher's moves downplay Moscow's efforts and, if scaled, could potentially restore Arctic ice. Especially if Russia's invisible warfare is stopped.
No one wants to position the move as a war effort, but self-awareness of what is happening is necessary. The best way to stop Putin's invisible climate war against the world is to help Ukraine win the war and replace the current regime, delusionally obsessed with global climate change in Russia's favor.
The Observer Effect
My experience shows that only exposing Russian weather meddling stops it, at least for some period of time, but the effect is immediate. The lasting results necessitate consistent effort to keep Russians in check, which hasn't happened yet.
But to stop Russia, Chinese leaders should stop perceiving Russia as a big ideological brother, letting Putin, using reflexive control, lovebombing, and other manipulative techniques, covertly impose his will on China as he usually does.
All this is especially important in the context of Putin's negotiations with Xi Jinping, which are happening these days.
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