Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 81
April 27, 2010 06:57 PM Age: 16 days
Category: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Military/Security, Russia, Ukraine
Russia’s new deal with Ukraine on the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) and gas prices has profound bilateral significance, as well as for the CIS and even Europe. It ratifies long-term Russian gains at the expense of all the other players and continues to solidify Moscow’s claim to possess a sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. Ukraine had sought to obtain reduced gas prices to cope with its deep economic crisis. It had three alternatives: the first, which it pursued, was to offer Moscow a share in a consortium alongside Ukraine and the EU, to manage the reorganization of the Ukrainian gas distribution network. Moscow turned this down, not wanting to be part of a consortium in regard to reforming the Ukrainian gas network, because it would not have a controlling share and, equally importantly, opportunities for corruption in the current status quo constitute the foundation of much of Russia’s gas wealth and leverage upon Ukraine and other East European states. If there is to be a consortium, Moscow wants it to be one that it controls.
Squashed oranges: the Orange Revolution of 2004 did not deliver promised reforms (Photo: mattlemmon)
Ukrainian MPs often fight in parliament. On 27 April they threw eggs and let off smoke bombs, as opposition MPs accused Ukraine's new President Viktor Yanukovych of selling out the country to Russia for a few pieces of silver.
Ukraine is back to playing the game it knows best: the balancing act between East and West.
Yanukovych initially seemed to be making overtures to the West. His first foreign visit was to Brussels on 1 March, where he made all the right noises. In Washington on 12-13 April Yanukovych helpfully provided Obama with the headlines he needed at an otherwise fruitless non-proliferation summit by agreeing to give up Ukraine's stockpile of enriched uranium.