Ukraine Fights for World Future while World Hesitates to Support Ukraine

By Irina Severin | UAOBserver | https://tinyurl.com/bdd9yja6

Paradoxically, the world and, first of all, US President Josef Biden refuse to hear Ukraine and refuse its right to protect itself and the world from the biggest evil of 21st-century Russia.

Світе! Почуй нас! https://tinyurl.com/bdawa5sy

Moreover, by banning Ukraine from retaliation strikes against Russia, Biden protects by all possible means a genocidal dictator, Putin, and the evil Empire, which is now weaker than ever before despite Russian propaganda.

Why paradoxically? Because Russia's war against Ukraine is just a red herring hiding another global war that Russia conducts against the world and the planet Earth.

The goal of Russia's hidden war is simple - to change the global climate in Russia's favor.

Now possessing the most extensive territory in the world, Russia can't use much of it because of permafrost, which covers 65 percent of the territory, and swamps, which cover another 12 percent due to prevailing low temperatures.

By melting the Arctic, which Russia overwhelmingly controls, Russia raises the global temperature, which benefits Russia enormously and, at the same time, destroys those countries that Russia considers either enemies - the West or competitors like China, India, and others.

The weapons in this war are simple and easy to employ without any opposition from the countries that Russia destroys. Why? Russia managed to impose on the world the fake theory of global warming that reliably protects Russia's destructive actions and frees Russia's hands.

The only way to stop Russia from destroying the world to get a geostrategic advantage is to overthrow Putin's regime as soon as possible and orderly deconstruct Russia to avoid recurrences of such destructive actions.

As long as Russia controls the Arctic, any Russian government will continue intentionally melting it - be this the most democratic one and even appointed by Biden himself as the democracy as a notion for the Russians doesn't exist.

When a Russian opposition figure, Kara-Murza, suggests that the EU should integrate Russia, he repeats Putin's idea of the Eurasian Union from Vladivostok to Lisbon, in which Russia should dominate.

Russian Evil Empire will stop being a threat to the world when it is divided into several independent ethnic states and will stop controlling such colossal land masses, allowing Moscow to modify the global climate with total impunity.

The West and the global South, including China and India, are in the same boat. Only by uniting their efforts can they stop Russia from forcing global warming to destroy them and obtain global domination by default.

As the West and China are being destroyed by climate change, Russia is gaining a moderate, favorable climate across one-seventh of the Earth. At least, this is what Russians think is happening. This strategy is easy to comprehend and, until now, easy to implement, as Russia has no opposition to its destructive actions.

There is only one country on Earth that opposes Russia and saves the world from destruction at the price of its lives - this is Ukraine.

The longer the world plays the role of bored bystanders while Ukrainians fight the Evil Empire, the further the destruction of the Earth will advance.

If the West, China, India, and others unite in their effort to stop Russia from destroying the world, the genocidal war against Ukraine and global warming, or Russia's hidden war against the world, will stop.

Russia is weak but effectively bluffing about its nonexistent might by buying media and spreading global propaganda.

Russia doesn't have effective nuclear weapons, as, for several decades, it continued nuclear bluffing, while placing a bet on geophysical weapons meant to change the climate in its favor.

Russia didn't need nuclear weapons to project the fake might - bluffing was enough. But now, as the bluff is obvious, Russia will start producing nuclear weapons.

The world should disarm Russia before it gains effective nuclear weapons. There is a window of opportunity that the world should use to avoid destruction - be it global warming with catastrophic consequences for all except Russia or a nuclear war.

It's time to get sober and act, not be played and paralyzed by Russian propaganda.

Chinese Peace Plan? There is no Chinese Peace Plan

By Irina Severin | UAObserver

Russian peace plan disguised as "Chinese peace plan"

What to know about the Chinese peace plan? There is no Chinese peace plan. China promotes a Russian peace plan disguised as a "Chinese peace plan." 

This is an old Russian false flag tactic of promoting its own plans as a third party's plan to increase the chances of its implementation by the weight and authority of the false flag used, in this case, the Chinese flag. 

Yes, China has introduced some decorations that should make the plan more acceptable, like phrases about sovereignty and territorial integrity, only to annihilate them with the following demands. Such an approach is hypocrisy as a political strategy - to obtain what Russia wants while preserving a semblance of decency. 

Putin's Uranium Obsession Makes Kazakhstan Next Target

By Irina Severin | UAObserver

GURULYOV: "KAZAKHS ARE NEXT AFTER UKRAINIANS. THE DECISION IS TAKEN."

Andrey Gurulyov, a deputy of the 8th State Duma for the ruling "United Russia" faction and a former deputy Commander of the Southern Military District of the Russian military, stated lately: "Kazakhs are next after Ukrainians. The decision is taken."

WHY KAZAKHSTAN? DOES IT MEAN THAT EUROPE CAN RELAX?

Russia desperately needs Kazakhstan, the largest producer of uranium, accounting for 43% of global production and possessing the biggest Uranium reserves—13% of global reserves. Russia is also mentioned among the major Uranium producers, but Russia processes Kazakh Uranium as it does not have its own Uranium deposits. Russia fears it could lose access to Kazakhstan's fields. 

Recently, to increase Uranium reserves, a Russia-sponsored coup d'état in Niger, one of the major producers of Uranium, led to the expulsion of the West from the country.

BUT WHY DOES RUSSIA SO DESPERATELY NEED URANIUM?

Putin's ambitions in Russia's economic and military development depend on Uranium. As Putin declared a couple of years ago, Russia will grow with the Arctic. But without special Uranium-powered equipment to melt the ice, the Arctic will freeze again. Without significant Uranium reserves, the Northern Sea Route and all its ports will freeze, and the dream of melting the permafrost, which occupies 65 percent of Russian territory, will remain a dream. 

Without Uranium, Russia won't be able to torture the West and China, etc., with hurricanes, storms, floods, landslides, heatwaves, droughts, tornadoes, and typhoons, as Putin does now, conducting a covert war of attrition against Russia's enemies and competitors while warming up the climate for Russia. 

RUSSIA'S SECRET "MILITARY-TECHNICAL MEANS" AS CLIMATE WEAPONS

Only large deposits of Uranium make it possible to imitate the force of Nature. Russia's "Military-technical means" (de facto geophysical weapon), about Putn and Patrushev, brag as "unique and without analogs" weapons, able to destroy any country, including America, which now boil the Arctic, Atlantic, and Pacific waters, powered by small autonomous nuclear reactors. 

Without Uranium, Russia-induced global climate change or global warming would be impossible. Russia would remain a poor, uncompetitive third-world country with a harsh climate and high heating costs.

By managing natural disasters in Russia's favor, Putin feels himself a God whom the world should worship and obey. This is the vibe Putin broadcasts into the world. 

WHY NOT NUCLEAR WEAPONS? 

Nuclear weapons would immediately invoke strong retaliation if Putin dared to use them. While nuclear-powered military-technical means are applied secretly, which allows them to destroy enemies and competitors with impunity, enjoying the sufferings of enemies and competitors on the TV screen. 

As for nuclear weapons, Putin doesn't even know whether Russia's nuclear weapons are still effective, as since the Soviet times, Russia has made a stake in nuclear-powered climate/geophysical weapons.

Who would Putin be without the magical power enclosed in Uranium? He would be nobody. Therefore, Kazakhstan is a priority.

CHINA THWARTED PUTIN'S ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE KAZAKHSTAN 

In 2022, Putin started expanding into Kazakhstan. First, he covertly staged a coup inside Kazakhstan and, a bit later,  "came to the rescue" of the current Kazakh President. Under the pretext of help, Shoigu brought the Russian army into Kazakhstan at lightning speed, hoping to stay there forever.

It was quite a sophisticated plan to occupy Kazakhstan using both hybrid and conventional military means. But something went wrong. China intervened immediately, demanding that Russian troops withdraw from the Kazakhstan territory. And Moscow had nothing to do but obey. 

The occupation of Ukraine should follow the capture of Kazakhstan, which should make Putin feel secure about Uranium reserves - a guarantee of Russian world domination. But two years ago, China thwarted Putin's plans. 

This time, Russia will act more attentively, starting with a smear campaign against the Kazakhstan leader, accusing him of cooperating with the West to make China more amenable and less supportive of Kazakhstan. 

Putin's Covert War for World Domination and "New Noah's Arc" Ideology

By Iryna Severin | UAObserver 

4/5/24 4:44 PM

Putin's "Perfect Storm" Reaches New York

Lightning in New York, targeting the Statue of Liberty, in addition to anomalously intense storms, massive landslides, tornadoes, and hurricanes rattling the country, culminating in earthquakes in New York, on an intuitive level, felt like Putin's perfect-storm operation against the US in the making.

Russians realize they can't attack the US directly, as the comparison of Russia's military might with the US or NATO is not in Moscow's favor. So, Russians concentrate their efforts on covert ways to attack the US and its symbol - New York and the Statue of Liberty, using alternative kinds of weapons or geoengineering tools.

Russians have been bragging for quite a long time about "unique weapons," "without analogues in the world," capable of destroying whatever country Moscow wants, including the US.

Putin stated that Russia doesn't need tanks to defeat the US, alluding to some mysterious "military-technical" response, which the West routinely interprets as the use of nuclear weapons.

But nuclear weapons are neither "unique" nor "without analogs in the world," which means that Russia alludes to possession of a different kind of secret weapons, which are either banned or considered nonexistent. As the West is more prosperous and more technologically advanced, Russia can't compete openly. Instead, Moscow relies on creative asymmetric solutions to defeat the West without the West even noticing the attacks.

Climate Modification as Russia's geopolitical weapon

"The military-technical" or geoengineering tools are not as straightforward and effective as nuclear weapons. Still, they have a massive advantage over nuclear weapons as they let Russians attack the US or whatever country they want covertly and thus with impunity - avoiding any retaliation, hiding under the "Wrath of Mother Nature" pretense.

Russians weaponize nature, using geoengineering to modify the climate or big weather patterns. This allows for intensifying natural disasters characteristic of specific areas and rechanneling them to amplify their destructive potential for the attacked country.

For example, scientists noticed that tornadoes in the US had recently moved away from their usual paths and headed eastward toward more populated and industrialized areas.

Russia targets not only the US but also China. Typhoons, floods, heat waves, and freezing storms have intensified and multiplied, overwhelming China in recent years, causing huge losses, destroying infrastructure, and weakening the Chinese economy. Weakening of China makes it more amenable and compliant in relations with Russia. The status quo and dynamics explain the words of a Russian politician and a "whistleblower," Vladimir Jirinovski, who in 2009 said that China will soon cease to exist.

Putin's war of attrition against the West and China

Brainwashed by Russian anti-Western propaganda and exhausted by multiple "natural disasters," China turned into Russia's accomplice in the war against Ukraine, as now, China sees Russia not only as a source of minerals and as a market for its products but also as the most stable place and a potential future shelter in an increasingly calamitous world.

Ironically, China unknowingly produces for Russia geoengineering tools, which Moscow uses to terrorize China with "natural disasters."

The US, worn out by multiple storms, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and droughts, is also becoming more self-isolated and focused on resolving internal issues rather than defending the world order, as it faces challenges from Russia. Moreover, the US also sees Russia as a potential solution for climate-driven disasters that are increasingly devastating the US.

In an attempt to neutralize climate change intentionally caused by Russia, the US halted oil and gas production, which benefits Russia and keeps the US and Europe dependent on it, but doesn't improve the climate, as the decision is based on the wrong premises.

Mother Nature or Mother Russia?

Europe, in turn, has also been moving from one extreme weather crisis to another—from freezing cold and intense storms to floods, heat waves, firestorms, and droughts. And, despite all the military crimes of Russian aggression against Ukraine, Europe, terrorized by "natural disasters," remains indecisive about countering Russia.

The Global South, including India, is the most affected and vulnerable to Russia-caused climate change, as they are the first to face "Mother Nature's" blows, and are unaware that behind them is "Mother Russia."

Russia managed to create a false choice - the world should either counter Russia or fight climate change. However, Russian military aggression against Ukraine and the Russian climate war seen as climate change are not two problems, but one - Russia.

Russian Efforts to Turn Russia into "New Mediterranean"

Despite extreme weather disasters worldwide, Russia's climate is improving dramatically, making it potentially the most sustainable place for investment and living. Tundra is gradually turning into productive agricultural land. Russia invests massive effort in melting the Arctic Ocean and the seas near its coastline and along the Russian Northern Sea Route, turning Russia, with its soon-to-be all-year-round unfrozen ports, into the center of civilization—a "New Mediterranean," as Russians call it.

Russia does experience temporary setbacks and losses due to the accelerating warming of the Arctic seas and the Arctic Ocean, but Moscow considers such collateral damage acceptable in a climate war. The losses, which the Western media likes to report, presenting Russia as the biggest victim of climate change, as the Arctic is warming up 4-7 times faster than the rest of the world, don't slow down Russian melting operations.

The same way as huge losses in Russia's aggression against Ukraine don't stop Russia from attacking Ukraine. The advantages Russia envisages in both cases far outweigh the losses.

Putin is melting not only the Arctic inside the Arctic Circle but also the permafrost inside Russia's mainland, which underlies 65 percent of Russian territory.

Putin Accelerates Global Warming

Putin is not a young man. He wants to see the results of warming now, not in decades as is predicted. The Arctic's warming now corresponds to what was expected in the 50s. Nevertheless, Russia intensifies Arctic melting, continually adding new and more powerful "military-technical means" to its geoengineering arsenal, provoking a cascading effect on the global climate system.

Russia's goal is to weaken the Gulf Stream (AMOC), which acts as a thermostat for the global climate system, thereby making warm places warmer and hot places colder. As the AMOC weakens due to a warming Arctic, we see a distortion of the redistribution of heat between the tropics and the north, creating blockages and increasing the contrast between the cold North of Europe and the sizzling South, leading to intense storms, flooding, deadly heat waves, and firestorms.

Putin hopes that cooling in the North Atlantic will make Russia indispensable to the West, as the only country with a massive nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet (military-technical for melting the Arctic), capable of breaking through the ice, and with vast energy resources whose demand should increase. In Putin's view, the West's dependence on Russia will subordinate the West to Russia to survive.

However, the weakening of AMOC affects not only the Atlantic but also the Indian and Pacific oceans, increasing severe weather crises in China and India, and provoking the melting of the Antarctic, as it should take more heat from the tropics due to the Arctic thermostat's inaction, and the global climate system is interconnected.

Putin's Ideology: Russia - New Noah's Ark, Putin - Scourge of God

The Russians expect that, due to their intense efforts to defreeze the Arctic, sea levels will rise and most of the world will go underwater, which won't affect Russia, as it is situated much higher than other countries.

The Kremlin even designed a new Russian ideology, positioning Russia as a biblical Noah's Ark - the "New Ark" that remains an oasis of good climate, able to save humanity from extermination due to global warming, but only for those who obey Putin.

To justify their actions, which intentionally distort the global climate system in Russia's favor, dooming the rest of the world to destruction, Putin positions himself as the Scourge of God, appointed by the Eurasian God to punish sinners and rebels - those who refuse to obey Russia, the natural ruler of the world.

The ideology is borrowed from Genghis Khan, who destroyed two-thirds of the existing civilizations then, and whom Russians secretly worship as their ancestor and a founding father of Russia. Putin considers himself a spiritual heir to Genghis Khan, or even his incarnation, due to the legend that Genghis Khan would return in 800 years.

Russia's Secret "Sovereign Climate War Doctrine"

To summarize, there is no global warming; there is an invisible Russian war for climate change in Russia's favor, turning the rest of the world into an uninhabitable place. To survive, the world should unite to stop Russia from distorting the global climate by thawing the Arctic and Russian permafrost, and from weaponizing severe weather against its adversaries and partners.

Putin insists that his actions are legitimate, as anything he does inside Russian borders and inside Russian waters is a legal matter, be it melting the Arctic ice sheets or destroying Russian permafrost. This is what the Russians informally call a Sovereign Climate Doctrine, adopted in 2009.

Putin justified Russian actions in the Arctic at a press conference following the US-Russia summit with Biden in June 2021, fearing Biden would discuss the issue. I already wrote about Russian actions in the Arctic then. The exposure bothered Putin, as a potential threat to their efforts and goals, but was utterly ignored by the Biden Administration. Climate was not discussed, or was discussed dogmatically, earlier imposed by the Russians as a cover-up for their intentions to modify the global environment.

The US's lack of awareness and refusal to recognize the problem allowed Russia to continue melting the Arctic and even step up its efforts, which it had halted, in preparation for the US-Russia Summit. The result of intensified efforts after the Summit was immediate: a massive, tragic flood in Germany in July 2021. Massive Russian efforts to melt the Arctic have increased precipitation in Europe, leading to floods.

This case alone shows that mere awareness of Russia's intentional modification of the global climate in its favor could halt it, albeit temporarily. While a lack of awareness allows Russia to wage an unidentified climate war against the world, causing massive damage with full impunity.

Russian Orthodoxy as Cover-up for Eurasian Military Shamanism

By Irina Severin | UAObserver

Russian Orthodoxy has nothing in common with Christianity. It is a cover for aggressive Shamanism professed by Genghis Khan - Putin and Shoigu's icon and a founding father of the Russian empire according to Russia's Eurasian ideology. 

The concept of Mongol Military Shamanism was to capture the entire world, formulated as "to reach the ultimate sea" and unite the world under their rule. Any state opposing Mongol rule was considered a rebel to be annihilated. 

This is precisely how Shoigu - the ideologist of Russian Eurasianism, sees the world. If Putin has the title of the Supreme Ruler of Russia, Shoigu, in the Russian Eurasian hierarchy, is a Supreme Shaman - who defines Russia's politics and to whom Putin secretly obeys. Both secretly worship Genghis Khan and his spiritual followers like Hitler. 

Russian orthodoxy, in fact, is a cover for Eurasian Military Shamanism. It is not strange that Hitler's cap is the main relic of the alleged Orthodox temple recently built by Shoigu. People have long called it a shamanic temple - something opposite to Christianity.

West's Soft Power vs. Russia's Reflexive Control

According to Politico, Speaker Mike Johnson eyes Russian assets in favor of Ukraine's military aid.  

Bipartisan legislation would let the U.S. seize $5B to $8B in Russian assets.

The US should lead strongly in seizing Russian assets to prove its credibility as a leader, not follow a European approach restrained by fear, which is definitely much better than no action.

To generate fear, Russians invest massively in fearmongering to scare the West. Fear is the most damaging factor and defining when reacting to Russian aggression.

Russians weaponize fear against the West.

According to Russian Reflexive Control, the mere threats of using nuclear weapons affect the enemies' brains in the same way as the real use of nuclear weapons - paralyzing and disabling them.

The massive threats Russians issue through their propaganda channels do scare the West to death and give Russia a huge advantage - the possibility of defeating the West without using weapons.

The West should overcome fear and act as smoothly as possible while emphasizing the fairness and inevitability of their steps, which are the Russian choice in the first hand.

Did Russia expect to be treated as a respected member of an international community while breaking all the rules?

Biden's "victory today" means Ukraine's capitulation to Moscow

 Irina Severin | UAObserver

Biden's adviser didn't mention regaining territories when talking about conditions for Ukraine's victory.

Sullivan's visit to Kyiv, demanding Ukraine's "victory today" without liberating Ukraine's territories, explains why Biden halted aid to Ukraine half a year ago, exactly when the land lease expired and Ukraine had no other options.

Biden's demand for "victory today" refers to Ukraine's capitulation of Russia today, which was planned in advance and orchestrated behind the scenes by Russia and their useful operatives in Biden's administration.

Putin clearly pointed this out in his interview and advanced demands to the Biden administration to deliver on his promise to make Ukraine capitulate.

This means not only the betrayal of Ukraine but also the betrayal of European NATO members. Nobody can trust the US's commitment anymore.

Next time, Biden will demand "victory today" from other European countries invaded by Russians, covertly playing into Russia's hands in expanding the Russian Empire. By demonstrating weakness and playing along with the adversary, Biden encourages not only Russia but also China.

The same Sullivan tricked Ukraine into launching "Formula of Peace" negotiations despite Ukraine's clear stance to get peace through military victory, which the West is interested in, not less than Ukraine.

Since then, Putin's useful operatives from the Biden administration suggested why to supply Ukraine with weapons if Ukraine is ready to capitulate - to negotiations for peace while it is still occupied by Russia?

Summer Ukraine's offensive without the necessary arms was another Russian scenario imposed on Ukraine by the Biden Administration as it guaranteed the physical obliteration of the Ukrainian army by a much better-equipped adversary and quick Russia's victory over Ukraine.

Biden chooses Putin over Ukraine and Putin reciprocates

  Irina Severin | UAObserver | 2024 

There is nothing strange about Putin preferring Biden to Trump. Joe Biden plays exactly into Putin's hands by depriving Ukraine of military aid. Despite having enough options to supply Ukraine with the necessary arms, Biden prefers appeasing Putin to win his support for reelection. 

The difference between Biden and Trump is that Trump talks about appeasing Putin, while Biden does appease Putin. The only preoccupation of Biden is to shift the responsibility for depriving Ukraine of military aid to Republicans to look good inside the country and abroad.  

Both Trump and Biden compete for Putin's favor as he possesses the "Golden share" in the American elections and could appoint the next president of the US as he did with two previous presidents by controlling the third-party candidates. 

Iran-backed, Russia-sponsored Houthis Special Military Operation in Red Sea

Irina Severin | UAObserver

The Hindustan Times video shows against whom the international coalition is fighting in the Red Sea. Officially, "Iran-backed" Houthis situationally are Russian proxies. Iran in Russia's false flag operation is a convenient cover-up for Russian covert operations and a scapegoat blindly used by Putin in Russia's big game for global dominance.

By employing Houthis, Putin achieves two goals. The first goal is to destroy the main maritime artery for world trade to favor the Russian Northern Sea Route in the Arctic as a "pirate-free" alternative compared with the troubled Suez Canal.

The second goal is to get Iran under attack by the Western coalition to drag it into a war with the United States and the West, thus completely diverting Western attention and resources from Ukraine.

Raising the world oil prices as the result of Russian-backed Houthis' blockage is rather a bonus compared with global reformatting tasks.

Putin's New Reflexive Control Operation

By Irina Severin | UAObserver

Why do Russians spread rumors about Putin's death?

Foremost, the rumor was addressed to Western leaders, not to the Russian public, as some suggested. From the Reflexive Control point of view, the information about Putin's death should provoke shock and fear about chaos in Russia as a country with nuclear weapons in case of Putin's death.

The Western leaders should imagine a nightmare scenario with terrifying pictures of a bloody civil war in Russia with chaos and nuclear weapons without control spread to the Middle East or elsewhere.

They should think: maybe it would be better that he is still alive - despite being predictably unpredictable, he is better than somebody unknown like semi-crazy Patrushev. At least Putin has mild manners, and it is possible to communicate with him. And this is precisely what happened.

Putin's Golden Share in American elections or Why Biden doesn't supply Ukraine with ATACAMS and F-16s?

 Irina Severin | UAObserver

Why Biden doesn’t supply Ukraine with ATACAMS despite Congress's bipartisan support, except for the radical Putinite faction inside the GOP opposing any aid to Ukraine.

Biden's reelection directly depends on Putin. Putin's "Golden share" in the American presidential election is the Russia-sponsored third-party candidates, which ultimately decide the destiny of the American elections, shifting the balance in favor of one or another candidate.  

This was the case in 2016 when the Green Party candidate shifted the balance in Trump's favor. The same happened in 2020 when the Libertarian candidate decided the election's result, favoring Biden's win. 

Both were Putin-sponsored spoilers meant to manipulate the result of the US election, and they did it in both cases very successfully.

Biden planned to turn Ukraine into big Bucha but something went wrong

Irina Severin | UAObserver

Emboldened by Burns' New Role, Putin Plans to Extend Aggression 

Biden named William Burns in his Cabinet.

CIA Director and former ambassador to Russia, Burns, is famous for appeasing and accommodating Putin's regime and imposing limitations and bans on Ukraine's military actions - from refusing necessary weapons for Ukraine's victory to banning targeting Russian military objects, from which Russia terrorizes Ukraine with constant missile attacks. 

Nothing strange that Biden's appointment of him to the main decision-making role in the White House alarmed Ukraine and those who oppose Putin's regime. Considering Burns' passion for pleasing Putin, his new position means the direct Kremlin's ruling of the White House.

Obviously, Biden's decision is terrifying news both for Ukraine and NATO members. Putin's main goal is to neutralize NATO and move it back beyond the sphere of influence of the former USSR.

With Burns' central role in the White House, Putin got closer to achieving his goal than ever before. The nomination means direct reassurance of Biden's commitment to Putin, which means that NATO, in its current form, will exist until Russia's first challenge to NATO countries.

This explains, as insiders inform, Putin's sudden inspiration to occupy parts of Poland and Lituania to create the land corridor to Kaliningrad. With Burn's nomination, Putin's ambitions defy the limitations of the former Warsaw Pact. "Russia doesn't end anywhere" is Putin's mantra and strategic expansionist goal.

Since Burns officially became the main decision-maker in the US, Putin is sure that Biden won't react to Russia's aggression against Poland, Lithuania, etc., as without American support, NATO's Article 5 will never work. As soon as NATO fails to activate Article 5, NATO will stop to exist.

Why Ukraine's "broad counteroffensive" not started yet?

Irina Severin | UAobserver

June 27, 2023

 

Lack of offensive weapons supply by the US and other allies

Ukraine has to be prepared, and most of all, Ukraine needs offensive weapons. For now, Biden makes Ukraine advance without appropriate weapons, which would lead to the immediate obliteration of the entire Ukraine army by Russian forces, possessing supremacy in the air.

Ukraine can't take chances and doesn't have second chances for simple reasons. It is impossible to resurrect fallen fighters, who, in bulk - are civilians forced by Russian aggression to become soldiers. 

Ukraine should do everything to win and to win with minimal losses. Ukraine is a European nation and can't, like Russia, use its people as expandable material. 

Ukraine needs more time and weapons to prepare for the final attack, which will undoubtedly be swift and decisive.  

Ukraine needs to win, not commit spectacular self-sacrifice live 

Prigozhin's short-lived triumph and Putin's next failure to replace Shoigu

The videos of Prigozhin and Wagner leaving Rostov looks like Prigozhin's triumph Putin only can dream about.  For jealous Putin, this is what a nightmare looks like.

As for the continuation of the story, Putin and Prigozhin understood differently the deal they made via Lukashenko. Putin won't fire Shoigu, which was the main condition of Prigozhin. Not because Putin doesn't want to, he can't. 

The fact that yesterday, Alexei Diumin was called to the Kremlin means that Putin counted on Prigozhin to eliminate Shoigu to replace him with his long-time bodyguard and loyalist Diumin finally. 

In 2021 after the Duma elections, Putin already tried to replace Shoigu with his other former bodyguard Yevgeny Zinichev, who then occupied the same position as earlier Shoigu - the head of the Emergency Ministry. 

Did Shoigu overplay Prigozhin and who framed whom?

 UAObserver 

By swearing allegiance to Shoigu, "Akhmat" and Kadyrov crossed the line, which is punishable 

The scandal between Prigozhin and Shoigu involving Kadyrov, Delimkhanov, and Putin has changed the Russian political landscape a bit. However,  it was not Prigozhin who framed Putin by refusing to sign an agreement with Shoigu, as it looks like, but Kadyrov, who signed it. Especially so as Shoigu issued his order without Putin's approval, challenging him. 

The "Akhmat" Special Rapid Response Unit is a subdivision of the Russian Guard, personally subordinate to Putin and headed by his former bodyguard Zolotov.  "Akhmat" in no way is not "a volunteer unit" mentioned in Shoigu's order. 

Putin created the Russian Guard as a counterbalance to Shoigu's army for Putin's protection after one of the attempts on his life. Putin let Kadyrov create a de facto private army located in Chechnya which was formally subordinated to the Russian Guard in exchange for Kadyrov's promise to be "Putin's infantry" protecting him and his clan. But the sudden public Akhmat signing of an agreement with Shoigu meant an over to the side of the rival clan.

Shoigu targets Prigozhin, hits Putin clan

UAObserver

Defense minister Sergei Shoigu's directive demanding that all ‘volunteer detachments’ must sign military contracts by the end of the month aimed at taking under control Wagner and other paramilitary formations, not subordinates to him. 

The directive was not agreed with Putin. Which especially important that these paramilitary formations belong to the competing Putin clan and initially were meant to balance Shoigu's extensive military force, directly subordinated and loyal to him. By such a move made under the pretext of aligning all military formations, Shoigu substantially weakened Putin's clan.  

The main target of the Shoigu directive is Wagner, whose owner Prigozhin lately openly criticized Shoigu for ineffectiveness. Lately, there were more so-called private armies created to protect the Putin clan or, de facto, to protect the owners of companies and heads of the regions, as lately, weakened by sanctions and isolation Putin started to cease being a guarantor for their positions, or property rights.

Drone attack: Shoigu's attempt to force Putin to introduce martial law

Even if Putin tries to capitalize on the attack of drones on the Kremlin, the larger context shows it was Shoigu's way of forcing Putin to introduce martial law.

Martial law would mean a de facto military coup, as levers of power would pass from Putin and FSB to Shoigu and the military.

Despite Putin's attempts to increase his influence in the army by 'rotating" generals, it is still loyal to Shoigu. Moreover, Shoigu has created his own PMC, which could overcome the army's combat capabilities.

One thing is required of Putin - to sign the introduction of martial law, after which he and his clan will lose influence on the situation.

The situation is similar to the start of the war. After Putin agreed to the special military operation, he lost control over the army. Even if he desperately tried to preserve the image of Russia's only and all-powerful ruler.

Kremlin drone strike, Russia's reflexive control, nukes and fake deals

 UAObserver 

Who is behind the drone attack? Russia routinely blames US 

The incident looks like a typical Russian false flag operation. The reason for this carefully staged performance could be Russia's attempt to turn the West against Ukraine.

Apparently, there is an agreement between Russia and the US at the level of security officials that Ukraine doesn't strike the Red Square in exchange for Russia doesn't use nuclear weapons.

However, the Kremlin is a legitimate target for the Ukrainian army, as Russia attacked Ukraine. "We don't attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities," Zelensky said, speaking on a visit to Finland.”

Ukraine's lack of necessary weapons dooms Kyiv and Washington to defeat

 UAObserver 

The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, is convinced that Ukraine doesn't need F-16 and long-range weapons in the counter-offensive against Russian invaders

Russian military trap in making

There is a really bizarre situation. The Russian propagandists, setting the main noise background of the war, talk about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but completely forget about the Russian offensive, which, apparently, is curtailed. Wagner's Prigozhin declares the need to stop where Russian forces are and begin to defend already occupied positions.

Russian propagandists actively praise the Ukrainian army and depict Russia's future defeat in the decisive battle, thus encouraging Ukraine's counter-offensive. Why stop the Russian offensive and spread the defeatist scenarios? And is Moscow really scared by the Ukrainian army?

Not that simple. The Russian side relies on the Ukrainian counter-offensive to win as Moscow is convinced that Ukraine's army will lose without airplanes and long-range weapons. 

Russia's calculation is that with predominance in the air Russian army will be able to stop Ukraine's counter-offensive, encircle unprotected Ukrainian troops and destroy them, and after that, launch a full-scale offensive against Ukraine. 

Political decision-making vs. military 

Despite massive Western military aid to Ukraine, Russia still has the advantage in airplanes and long-range weapons. Therefore, Ukraine's offensive on the ground without protection from the air benefits Russia's military enormously.